ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[northjaxpro]

Florida East coast storm running within 50 miles of the coast ala David '79 if this GFS 168 hr came to fruition.

[StarmanHDB]

real close...

Yes about 150miles offshore

Yeah, the previous GFS run had a hurricane with Fort Lauderdale/Broward in its sights.

Welcome to Cristobal. Now follow the swinging circles....back and forth....back and forth....back and forth. Your eyelids are growing very heavy now....back and forth....back and forth. You are getting sleepy....very sleepy. Back and forth....back and forth.

[SFLcane]

[Hurricane Andrew]

As a member said earlier, the windshield wipers are in motion.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +180



18z GFS +186

[GeneratorPower]

Category Strongish into JAX. That'd be something.

[SouthFLTropics]

When was the last time Jacksonville took a direct hit from a Hurricane??? That GFS 18z is historic.

[northjaxpro]

Category Strongish into JAX. That'd be something.

Man, I am shuddering thinking about this scenraio if it verified. man, that would not be good here.

[northjaxpro]

When was the last time Jacksonville took a direct hit from a Hurricane??? That GFS 18z is historic.

From a hurricane, it was Dora in Sept 1964. We had Tropical Storm Beryl make a direct hit on us 2 year ago, the first cyclone to direct landfall here since Dora.

[AdamFirst]

Category Strongish into JAX. That'd be something.

Man, I am shuddering thinking about this scenraio if it verified. man, that would not be good here.

That run could bring hurricane conditions from the Treasure Coast all the way up. Completely bonkers if it verified.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Holy crud.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_33.png

[Jevo]

18z GFS +192 - 45 Hours riding the Florida Coast

[Bocadude85]

What I have gathered from today's model runs is that we could have a storm in the general vicinity of the NW Bahamas in the 5 day time range. From there who knows what may happen.

[stormlover2013]

What I gather from today is we have no clue what is going to happen lol untill something forms

[northjaxpro]

These GFS runs really have me feeling very uncomfortable this evening. I hope they shift soon. These runs are definitely not good for Jax and the entire Florida East Coast I can assure you of this.

[SouthDadeFish]

I would like to remind folks that we are speculating over a shift of only 100-150 miles between the 12Z and 18Z GFS 6-7 days out. This is not windshield wipers, this is well into medium-range guidance, which changes all the time.

I think a key aspect of the forecast will be how strong the system is once it emerges from Hispaniola and if it is deep enough to be drawn up by the weakness just off the East Coast of the US to miss FL. Also, it depends how strong the weakness is. Even the speed of the this potential tropical cyclone is crucial. So many factors at play here. Just keep an eye on it, and remember we in the US have many days to watch this and prepare. Our friends in the Caribbean have a much shorter time frame, as usual. Thankfully none of the models are strengthening 96L too much before potential landfall there.

[stormlover2013]

What I gather from today is we have no clue what is going to happen lol untill something forms

[northjaxpro]

I would like to remind folks that we are speculating over a shift of only 100-150 miles between the 12Z and 18Z GFS 6-7 days out. This is not windshield wipers, this is well into medium-range guidance, which changes all the time.

I think a key aspect of the forecast will be how strong the system is once it emerges from Hispaniola and if it is deep enough to be drawn up by the weakness just off the East Coast of the US to miss FL. Also, it depends how strong the weakness is. Even the speed of the this potential tropical cyclone is crucial. So many factors at play here. Just keep an eye on it, and remember we in the US have many days to watch this and prepare. Our friends in the Caribbean have a much shorter time frame, as usual. Thankfully none of the models are strengthening 96L too much before potential landfall there.

Excellent advice SouthDade. But, no question, everyone will have to watch this very carefully over the next week. I mentioned earlier that the trend this season to this point is how abnormally strong these troughs have been across the U.S.East Coast and Western Atlantic. They have been frequent too. The key will be how strong this next trough dropping down this upcoming week will be and how much land interaction will affect 96L.

[HURRICANELONNY]

These GFS runs really have me feeling very uncomfortable this evening. I hope they shift soon. These runs are definitely not good for Jax and the entire Florida East Coast I can assure you of this.

Don't get too excited. Once there's a name the models will change drastically. They always do.

[MGC]

So, about a 800 mile shift right in 30 hours? Who knows, tomorrow it might shift back west 500. This is crazy.....MGC