ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Jevo]

0z GFS +48

0z GFS +72

[ROCK]

I wouldnt get all excited about the FIM model. It is expiremental after all and for a reason.....stick with the EURO, GFS in that order IMO....

[jlauderdal]

Lastest FIM...

if it looks like that in 48 hours we have issues to be sure..

[Blown Away]

00z GFS weak... Lol

[Jevo]

0z GFS +96

[meriland23]

00z GFS weak... Lol

Also looks like it's gonna fish so far

[jlauderdal]

00z guidance..
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Most of the models appear to miss Hispaniola to the north..hmm..

That WNW bend in the Bahamas is something we are going to need to watch closely with future model runs...

That is a classic slot for SFL.... I sure hope it doesn't happen...[/quote


perfect track especially if it evades the hispanola shredder...if ridging builds back in then watch out..ssts are peaking now in this part of the world

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS weak... Lol

Also looks like it's gonna fish so far

probably because it remains weak because in this case it might be underestimating this system and its possible that the ensembles may still be split into 2 camps one camp of weak and out to sea and the other camp stronger and towards Florida

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[Blown Away]

perfect track especially if it evades the hispanola shredder...if ridging builds back in then watch out..ssts are peaking now in this part of the world

When you going to fire up the generator to turn this out to sea?

[Jevo]

0Z GFS +120

[Riptide]

There is nothing to really force it out to sea on this run untill way later, and the front is pretty washed out...drifter-type system.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks fairly weak and much further East this run. Not sure if it will escape or not at 138 hrs

[meriland23]

Seems to be stalled outside of fl, slowly moving nw

[Jevo]

0z GFS +144

[paintplaye]

Looks like riding is building back in to the north of the system. Should see a general WNW to NW movement until the next trough comes through.

[NDG]

Well, FL is in the all clear now, per the latest GFS run j/k

[deltadog03]

Out to sea that would go for sure, as there is a blocking ridge to its west, but not north. This solution is certainly plausible.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS keeps this weaker initially and allows it to quickly move off into the weakness, similar to what the 12Z Euro showed.

[jlauderdal]

perfect track especially if it evades the hispanola shredder...if ridging builds back in then watch out..ssts are peaking now in this part of the world

When you going to fire up the generator to turn this out to sea?

gfs saving the day but that model has been all over the place...generator on sunday

[deltadog03]

00Z GFS keeps this weaker initially and allows it to quickly move off into the weakness, similar to what the 12Z Euro showed.

agreed...it needs to strengthen quickly to have some kind of chance of getting close to the us if it does even develop. imo