ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[TheStormExpert]

This is what Alyono was saying earlier about how if it stayed weaker it would move faster and be pulled out to sea, it also looked as if 96L tangled with Hispanola more on this run compared to previous runs.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well now that every bit of land is covered from Texas to the east coast and Bermuda wonder what will really happen. Will see what tomorrows model runs show, but I'm starting to think the euro and gfs are on to something by keeping this weak. Very well could end up just like Bertha.

[Yellow Evan]

Why is that the case? Wouldn't a stronger storm moved faster due to upper-level steering and more likely to feel the weakness?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The weakness in the West Atlantic is deeper this run, allowing for more poleward movement before high pressure builds in from the west. Still, this storm meanders for quite a while. It won't be an easy storm to forecast, both track wise and intensity wise.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +180

[meriland23]

Well now that every bit of land is covered from Texas to the east coast and Bermuda wonder what will really happen. Will see what tomorrows model runs show, but I'm starting to think the euro and gfs are on to something by keeping this weak. Very well could end up just like Bertha.

I just have a hard time believing that considering what the system is doing currently. It is booming faster and harder than a lot have expected.

[SFLcane]

00z Canadian is out to sea

[boca]

So its basically looking better for us in Florida dodging another storm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So its basically looking better for us in Florida dodging another storm.

Whoa, slow down there. This is still five days or more days out. The track 96L takes is dependent on timing, the strength of the system itself, and the strength of the trough that may allow for an escape route.

Irene 2011 should serve as a reminder of how quickly things can change.

[boca]

So if 96L cracks up the models will be off track apperently from what was written earlier.

[boca]

So its basically looking better for us in Florida dodging another storm.

Whoa, slow down there. This is still five days or more days out. The track 96L takes is dependent on timing, the strength of the system itself, and the strength of the trough that may allow for an escape route.

Irene 2011 should serve as a reminder of how quickly things can change.

True the models due flip flop so we will see.

[Riptide]

So its basically looking better for us in Florida dodging another storm.

Whoa, slow down there. This is still five days or more days out. The track 96L takes is dependent on timing, the strength of the system itself, and the strength of the trough that may allow for an escape route.

Irene 2011 should serve as a reminder of how quickly things can change.

I forget the model progression of that TC, was it progged to go out to sea or into the gulf?

[meriland23]

So its basically looking better for us in Florida dodging another storm.

I wouldn't put too much faith into this model run or the runs before. Every single one is drastically different from one another so much so that you know they don't have a clue yet. It will take a few days before they get a general idea ( or until a TS has formed). IMO it has as much of a chance of going to FL as it does LA, TX or the sea. I also think there are a multitude of things the path of this specific storm depends on, things that with even minor changes makes a big difference. It will be a extremely hard one to track correctly.

[boca]

96L actually looks like a depression already as we speak on satelite pictures.Tomorrow is a new day.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So its basically looking better for us in Florida dodging another storm.

Whoa, slow down there. This is still five days or more days out. The track 96L takes is dependent on timing, the strength of the system itself, and the strength of the trough that may allow for an escape route.

Irene 2011 should serve as a reminder of how quickly things can change.

I forget the model progression of that TC, was it progged to go out to sea or into the gulf?

As an invest, it was forecast to go into the Gulf, but the track shifted north across the Greater Antilles and towards South Florida once it was first designated. The center relocated as Irene organized near Puerto Rico, and it ended up passing east of Florida and moving up the East Coast.

[paintplaye]

96L actually looks like a depression already as we speak on satelite pictures.Tomorrow is a new day.

Cloud tops are warming and it still looks like there are multiple areas of vorticities trying to win out. Dry air also looks to be an issue too.

[SFLcane]

HWRF not budging track wise.

[meriland23]

HWRF had something seriously viscious last model run. Is HWRF a reliable model or is it often way wrong.

[Jevo]

HWRF had something seriously viscious last model run. Is HWRF a reliable model or is it often way wrong.

It's right as much as it is wrong... But it's damn consistent; it finds a solution and sticks with it.

[fci]

Model flip flops are notorious especially while a system is an Invest and we don't even know how far north it will initialize. Once we have a TD and recon plus perhaps some model consensus; we will get a clearer view of where the future Cristobal will be headed.
Model-wise, we have seen New Orleans in the bullseye and now South Florida. Living in South Florida I do like the trend further and further east.
As for the comments of "media hype" to come in South Florida; I often wonder (and get in trouble when I post) why people get so worked up about the media coverage. We weather aficionados complain when the media ignores threats and then complain when they do report on systems and deem it as hype. People down here have been through storms before albeit not since 2005 but we sure had a flurry of them back then and people will take action if and when it becomes necessary. Awareness is a good thing and we should embrace it when the local media hops on the story. Yeah, some will make inaccurate reports but all in all it seems to work out fine.
Possible late nights ahead.......
Good luck to everyone "if" this system does become an issue down the road!