EPAC: LOWELL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

This is one of the top 5 largest eyes I've ever seen, I've seen full hurricanes that are smaller than the eye of Lowell

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Major Hurricane Cristina's convection is about the size of Lowell's eye. What a large eye, Lowell! It just needs to organize its core and to shrink that eye.

[Kingarabian]

[jaguarjace]

Zoomed out view.

[somethingfunny]

Wow!

Karina could practically fit inside Lowell's eye. I wonder what the minimum central pressure is in there?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Lowell continues to exhibit a rather large, but ragged eye in
microwave and geostationary satellite imagery. The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates are 55 kt from SAB and 65 kt from TAFB. A
couple of recent ASCAT passes shows a large area of 50 to 55 kt
winds. Based on a blend of the satellite estimates and the ASCAT
data the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt. Although not
explicitly shown in the official forecast, Lowell could become a
hurricane during the next 6 to 12 hours while it remains over 26
degree Celsius water and in a low-shear environment. After that
time, the shear is expected to remain low, but the cyclone will be
moving over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air
mass that should cause weakening. Given the large size of Lowell's
wind field, the rate of weakening is likely to be slower than the
typical spin down of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that move
over cool water. In fact, Lowell is likely to become a
convective-free post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in
a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 315/3. A mid- to upper-level trough
extending southwestward from southern California will weaken and
move eastward today. This will allow the subtropical ridge to the
north and east of Lowell to rebuild, which will result in a slightly
faster northwestward motion during the next several days. The track
guidance is in good agreement during the first 2 to 3 days, and the
NHC track is near the middle of the tightly clustered model envelope
during that time. Later in the period the spread of the models
increases, but for now the NHC track will remain near the model
consensus at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 19.7N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.3N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 25.3N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z 28.3N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

I have a feeling Lowell is at least borderline cat.2.

Hard to tell without recon... Especially since Dvorak is so dependent on convection.

But a tropical storm does not have a well defined eye like that.

[hectopascal]

[Yellow Evan]

8th hurricane of the season

EP, 12, 2014082112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1220W, 65, 982, HU, 34, NEQ, 160, 160, 160, 160, 1010, 360, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1220W, 65, 982, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 80, 80, 80, 1010, 360, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,
EP, 12, 2014082112, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1220W, 65, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1010, 360, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LOWELL, D,

[hurricanes1234]

Congratulations Lowell!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has
closed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little.
The initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is
expected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly
weaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters
and into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a
large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin
down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone
with gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low
afterward.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level
trough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a
ridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should
result in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days,
followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone
becomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the
north. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
one, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[euro6208]

It's very cute looking

[somethingfunny]

Lowell is huge and already contributing to rainfall in the southwestern US!

[supercane4867]

Classic large ragged eye

[Yellow Evan]

Lowell looks high end Cat 1.

[Hurricane_Luis]

It has a large eye because it has multiple centres.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The structure of Lowell continues to feature a large eye, however
the convective banding is a little more ragged than it was 6 hours
ago. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on the latest TAFB
and SAB Dvorak classifications. Lowell will be moving across the 26C
isotherm in the next few hours, and gradual weakening should begin
as the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a more stable
airmass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take
longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell
becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and
weakening to a remnant low afterward.

Lowell jogged a little to the right over the past few hours, but
seems to have resumed a slow northwestward motion of 315/03. The
track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lowell should move a
little faster toward the northwest as a ridge rebuilds to the east
and north of the cyclone. Late in the period a shallower Lowell
should be steered more toward the west-northwest by the
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a
little to the right of the previous one through 72 hours to account
for the initial position, but is otherwise an update of the
previous NHC track. The official forecast also lies very close to
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 20.3N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[somethingfunny]

We all know that these simulated IR satellite graphics are unreliable at best (and usually flat out wrong) but they give us an easy-to-see representation of potential rainfall. Check out how Lowell's moisture plume may affect the United States according to the 12z GFS!

Initialization








Although the track will remain well offshore, the scenario forecast by the NHC is pretty interesting:

Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take
longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell
becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and
weakening to a remnant low afterward.

A "naked swirl" with gale-force winds??

[Yellow Evan]

I guess I'm getting rain partially from this today then

[somethingfunny]

The floater on Lowell doesn't do it any justice. Holy bejeezmus