ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[stormlover2013]

Euro should be out anybody have it?

[Incident_MET]

Yeah...its even farther east than GFS well over open Atlantic.

[somethingfunny]

Are there any models that still don't develop 96L into a storm?

[Hammy]

Are there any models that still don't develop 96L into a storm?

I don't think so, at this point it seems to differ simply to what degree the storm develops (and of course where it goes.)

[somethingfunny]

Are there any models that still don't develop 96L into a storm?

I don't think so, at this point it seems to differ simply to what degree the storm develops (and of course where it goes.)

I think it's interesting even with pretty much unanimous model support for a tropical storm within 5 days, the NHC isn't willing to wager higher than 70% while Hispaniola is in the picture.

[Nimbus]

The convection is firing a little further north up near 15N, if the center redevelops up there it should stay north of Hispaniola. Ridges and weaknesses are hard to predict more than three days out but the current trend in the models to recurve the system east of Florida could validate. Later model runs should be more valid than earlier runs.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS +126; weaker and a Florida miss

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS +180

[perk]

WOW Tuesday the GFS had 96L hitting Houston/Galveston and now recurving east of Florida.

[NDG]

What I don't get while the Euro and GFS have gone with a recurve is that both the UKMET and HWRF, two very good models, are persistent of no recurve, in fact the latest 06z HWRF so far looks identical to its earlier 0z run.

[sunnyday]

The huge changes in the "predictions" are always amazing to me. All the way from Texas earlier this week to possible recurve now! What I don't understand this time is why the models are showing such scenarios when there is not even a storm present yet. I wonder if there will even be one.
If there is another recurve, I will feel crazy to have expected otherwise.

[tolakram]

What I don't get while the Euro and GFS have gone with a recurve is that both the UKMET and HWRF, two very good models, are persistent of no recurve, in fact the latest 06z HWRF so far looks identical to its earlier 0z run.

I'm not so sure the HWRF is that much better, maybe it just got lucky a few times? This could be the big test for it.

[Blown Away]

06z...

06z... Steady increasing...

06z...

[NDG]

06z HWRF, much stronger on this run than 0z run.

[NDG]

Poor Nassau,** if this run was to verify***.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well seems to me the major models are now in agreement and latching on to this being much weaker with yet another summertime trough catching this and turning it out to sea. Guess all that's left is strength and when it makes the turn. Shouldn't really come as a big surprise to anyone as this has been the theme this year.

[NDG]

HWRF still aiming towards SE FL.

[perk]

What I don't get while the Euro and GFS have gone with a recurve is that both the UKMET and HWRF, two very good models, are persistent of no recurve, in fact the latest 06z HWRF so far looks identical to its earlier 0z run.

I'm not so sure the HWRF is that much better, maybe it just got lucky a few times? This could be the big test for it.

It can't be any worse the GFS has shifted from Texas to east of Florida in 2 days. That' over a thousand miles.

[SFLcane]

Wow! Big test for this model.

[ninel conde]

Well seems to me the major models are now in agreement and latching on to this being much weaker with yet another summertime trough catching this and turning it out to sea. Guess all that's left is strength and when it makes the turn. Shouldn't really come as a big surprise to anyone as this has been the theme this year.

been the theme for many years. we can clearly see on the 06 GFS that the nw atlantic ridge failed to materialize yet again and what we have as in the last 8 years is low pressure in the nw atlantic which always means recurve. what we also see is the high in the subtropics almost completely gone so we might see a quik recurver off africa.