ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20
mph across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could
limit development during the first part of the weekend, but
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by
early next week when the system is forecast to move near or over the
Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[sunnyday]

I see. Thank you.

[GCANE]

I was just thinking when you would stop by in the early morning hours . Still remember the hot tower comments and how everyone else got tired of reading us state it so much .

Good Morning Cyclenall

[alienstorm]

Well if you look at the satellite loop and at surface observations it is clear that no LLC has develop. Furthermore, it looks like the consolidation that was happening last night has stop and the system is now loose and moving rather fast at 15 - 20 mph. So I don't see any development in the short term until this system slows down and passes the northern leeward islands and Puerto Rico. As far as the models flipping back and forth it is always the case with such a loose system, however, wont be surprise to see a trend back to the left later today.

The key is timing and if the system continues to move at this speed then the re-curve scenario will definitely play out. However, if it does start to consolidate (which I don't expect until sometime tomorrow) then we could see a greater impact to the SE US.

So my thought is that it may and I underline may start to develop on Friday as it will be north of the islands and re-curve out to sea. That's my thought..

[Blown Away]

JB's twitter thoughts...

[Pearl River]

Rather interesting statement in the New Orleans AFD this morning:

AS FOR YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE...THE MDLS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 7Z TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC IS STILL CALLING FOR A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE MDLS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS MAY STAY WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH NO SYSTEM HAVING EVEN DEVELOPED
YET THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ACCURATELY TELL WHERE
AN EVENUTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GO...LETS AT LEAST SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS FIRST. AS ALWAYS ITS APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON AN WITH OUR AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST WE SHOULD ALWAYS
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST IN THE TROPICS. /CAB/]

[cycloneye]

Now moving NW at 315 degrees with a more faster movement on 12z Best Track.

LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 56.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

[gatorcane]

Now moving NW at 315 degrees with a more faster movement on 12z Best Track.

LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 56.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

The anticipated more NW movement the models were showing yesterday has commenced. The models do show it bending back WNW as it nears the Leewards as it feels the strong ridge to the north.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am curious. Would a stronger storm bring this more westward or does the strength of the storm have little to do with the path of this specific storm?

A met said before that the stronger it is, the more westward it goes. A weaker storm would move faster and move in another direction.

That doesn't make sense to me. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What he said was that a weak system moves with the low levels a bit faster having the chance to catch the weakness and moving more north verses west. Where a stronger storm would be a bit slower under the high, and maybe moved further west at a slower speed maybe missing the weakness.

[Blown Away]

Issued 12z...

Issued 06z...

[SFLcane]

Thinking recon is a no go today. Unfortunately for the models

[Sanibel]

Whatever negative factors were present before are still there and mixing in with 96L's attempt at development. It needs to sort out that bad air before it can consolidate.

[jlauderdal]

Man this is getting confusing... Models all over the place...

that area of development sure expanded out from yesterday...we need at least another day and see if we get some consensus...gfs and euro like the easterly idea so im going with that for now..maybe they overcooked the trough but right now im thinking it stays offshore of florida, it doesnt take much ridging to push a system into florida from that direction...hope im right because conditions look favorable after the islands regardless of its trajectory

[TheStormExpert]

This thing is a total mess this morning, wondering if development chances will be lowered today?

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

The RAMDIS floater is a bit too far south but looking closely there might be some evidence of a circulation.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=7

[Frank2]

I realize S2K doesn't want us to post hotlinks but this page is a good long-term reference because it shows the large-scale features in a WV Loop format:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

Just my own interpretation, but currently there appears to be a TUTT-like feature forming from the NW Bahamas across SE FL and Cuba, so really not the most favorable environ for a tropical system, and looking at 96L it seemed to be a TD for a time overnight but now appears to be moving into a less-favorable area...

P.S. IMHO, the US has enough problems at this point without a hurricane disaster to deal with...

Frank

[tolakram]

I realize S2K doesn't want us to post hotlinks but this page is a good long-term reference because it shows the large-scale features in a WV Loop format:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

Just my own interpretation, but currently there appears to be a TUTT-like feature forming from the NW Bahamas across SE FL and Cuba, so really not the most favorable environ for a tropical system, and looking at 96L it seemed to be a TD for a time overnight but now appears to be moving into a less-favorable area...

P.S. IMHO, the US has enough problems at this point without a hurricane disaster to deal with...

Frank

Hi Frank,

links are just fine, it's when you embed the link as an image that we have a problem with. For example, you could have easily placed IMG tags around that link, but then it would be a hotlinked image and not just a link. Links are good! It IS ok to hotlink images if the image is copied to an image sharing site first.

[TheStormExpert]

Shear is likely going to kill 96L, just looking at satellite and water vapor you can see shear right in front of it in it's path.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Shear is likely going to kill 96L, just looking at satellite and water vapor you can see shear right in front of it in it's path.

The location of the shear is not static.

Take a look at this page: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

and then use the +- 3 hours button to see how the shear has been changing and moving in front of the disturbance. I'm not saying conditions are ideal or shear is not a problem.

[gatorcane]

When will we know if the plane is going out?