ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nativefloridian]

Just my observation, but based on the loops previously posted, it appears to me the coc is trying to develop more to the west around 15/60?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[canes04]

IMHO

I see overall better structure this morning with the low consolidating.
Let's see what recon finds.

[nativefloridian]

IMHO

I see overall better structure this morning with the low consolidating.
Let's see what recon finds.

I agree. Seems it's trying to get it's act together. Wonder if we'll have a TD by 2pm. I've seen worse looking systems upgraded. Hopefully recon will fly out and give us a better idea of what's going on out there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

IMHO

I see overall better structure this morning with the low consolidating.
Let's see what recon finds.

I agree. Seems it's trying to get it's act together. Wonder if we'll have a TD by 2pm. I've seen worse looking systems upgraded. Hopefully recon will fly out and give us a better idea of what's going on out there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't know what you guys are looking at but this has obviously become less organized overnight, and at this rate recon may not even go out today if trends continue.

[nativefloridian]

IMHO

I see overall better structure this morning with the low consolidating.
Let's see what recon finds.

I agree. Seems it's trying to get it's act together. Wonder if we'll have a TD by 2pm. I've seen worse looking systems upgraded. Hopefully recon will fly out and give us a better idea of what's going on out there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't know what you guys are looking at but this has obviously become less organized overnight, and at this rate recon may not even go out today if trends continue.

I guess we'll all just have to play the wait and see game, as has been the case this season.

[hectopascal]

cyclogenesis is very close 96 L is now displaying vigorous convection.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Andrew]

My bet is that recon flies. And it should. The models need the better data. I am not sold on a recurve out to see. Anyone from LA to Bermuda is still in play here.

[Alyono]

My bet is that recon flies. And it should. The models need the better data. I am not sold on a recurve out to see. Anyone from LA to Bermuda is still in play here.

Models do not get ANY data from a low level invest

[HURAKAN]

vigorous convection? vigorous is way too powerful of a word to describe 96L

[TheStormExpert]

My bet is that recon flies. And it should. The models need the better data. I am not sold on a recurve out to see. Anyone from LA to Bermuda is still in play here.

Even though 96L is currently a mess all over the place I seriously hope it stays organized to allow recon to want to still go out today.

[Bocadude85]

Here is a wide view rainbow loop of the Atlantic. 96L has plenty of moisture to work with that is for sure. Im having a hard time seeing this pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispanola but we shall see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[gatorcane]

96L possibly getting nudged a bit more WNW at the end of this loop?

[Hurricane Andrew]

96L possibly getting nudged a bit more WNW at the end of this loop?

I saw that too. If this thing gets into the straits, BOOM. The TCHP there is quite high.

[TheStormExpert]

96L possibly getting nudged a bit more WNW at the end of this loop?

I saw that too. If this thing gets into the straits, BOOM. The TCHP there is quite high.

This isn't going into the Florida straits. It's looking more than likely now that it will recurve even if it doesn't develop.

[Bocadude85]

96L possibly getting nudged a bit more WNW at the end of this loop?

I saw that too. If this thing gets into the straits, BOOM. The TCHP there is quite high.

This isn't going into the Florida straits. It's looking more than likely now that it will recurve even if it doesn't develop.

Thats a pretty bold statement to make this far in advance, especially when this system has not even developed yet. The UKMET still brings this into the straits. It may not be the most likely scenario but you can not rule anything out at this point in time.

[Hurricaneman]

I see an outflow boundary to the north spit out by 96L, thats not good for strengthening as there seems to be stable air in it at the moment

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[N2FSU]

96L possibly getting nudged a bit more WNW at the end of this loop?

I noticed that too, although it may just be my eyes deceiving me.
The wider view also shows a ton of convection trying to wrap itself around.

[hectopascal]

vigorous convection? vigorous is way too powerful of a word to describe 96L

The towers support there is vigorous convection.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Andrew]

96L possibly getting nudged a bit more WNW at the end of this loop?

[img ]http://i61.tinypic.com/65pbfl.jpg[/img]

I noticed that too, although it may just be my eyes deceiving me.
The wider view also shows a ton of convection trying to wrap itself around.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would put development chances at the following.

24 Hours: 30%
48 Hours: 60%
72 Hours: 80%
120 Hours: 90%

[tolakram]

live water vapor loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-58&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=15