ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

the dry air got it as soon as it lifted from the ITCZ. might do something as it heads out east of bermuda.

No models take it that far east.

the trend is the models is east. they may drop it all together soon with it encased in dry air now.

Encased in dry air? Are you kidding me? This has a very healthy moisture envelope.

wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-58&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=15

[TheStormExpert]

The UKMET was the first to sniff this out, and it's consistency has been major. I would definitely trust it over the flip-flopping GFS, which, in the last 8 runs, has shown landfalls anywhere from Texas to Bermuda. Same goes for the GEM.

But the GFS has the Euro by it's side, as well as several other models.

[gatorcane]

Here is an image of the UKMET (which has been recently upgraded) - if it gets this right and there is indeed no recurve, I think we will all become UKMET huggers after the way it handled this system!

[Hurricane Andrew]

The UKMET was the first to sniff this out, and it's consistency has been major. I would definitely trust it over the flip-flopping GFS, which, in the last 8 runs, has shown landfalls anywhere from Texas to Bermuda. Same goes for the GEM.

But the GFS has the Euro by it's side, as well as several other models.

The EURO has not exactly been good this year. And out of the other major models supporting it (GFS, GEFS, GEM, NOGAPS), the only ones I would give weight to are the NOGAPS and the GEFS.

[Bocadude85]

the dry air got it as soon as it lifted from the ITCZ. might do something as it heads out east of bermuda.

No models take it that far east.

the trend is the models is east. they may drop it all together soon with it encased in dry air now.

They may also swing back west. We all have seen models forecast a system to head out to sea, only to swing back west a few days later and show a landfall. We are talking about a system that has not developed yet and may not develop at all. So I wouldn't put much faith into any model at this point in time.

[TheStormExpert]

The UKMET was the first to sniff this out, and it's consistency has been major. I would definitely trust it over the flip-flopping GFS, which, in the last 8 runs, has shown landfalls anywhere from Texas to Bermuda. Same goes for the GEM.

But the GFS has the Euro by it's side, as well as several other models.

The EURO has not exactly been good this year. And out of the other major models supporting it (GFS, GEFS, GEM, NOGAPS), the only ones I would give weight to are the NOGAPS and the GEFS.

The Euro has performed much better than the GFS, and it has done decent with several systems this season. Like while the GFS was blowing up Bertha it was taking it's sweet time with Bertha getting going.

[deltadog03]

Well, the game has certainly changed a bit. I am not going to just change my ideas that much that quick, but the weak and out to sea idea seems to be a very possible solution. Funny how these work, we have to get it to develop first, and that doesn't seem to be happening today.

[tolakram]

The Euro has performed much better than the GFS, and it has done decent with several systems this season. Like while the GFS was blowing up Bertha it was taking it's sweet time with Bertha getting going.

The euro generally does a little better once a system has formed, until then the UKMet, the last time comparisons were looked at, actually did the best. There is no blanket statement that can be made for model performance that ignores location and types of systems. The euro misses the development of many systems in the deep tropics while the GFS tends to develop too many but usually does not miss development.

In this case most of the models show very little development for the next day or so, so the fact this is disorganized should not be any surprise.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well seems to me the major models are now in agreement and latching on to this being much weaker with yet another summertime trough catching this and turning it out to sea. Guess all that's left is strength and when it makes the turn. Shouldn't really come as a big surprise to anyone as this has been the theme this year.

Please look at the HWRF post directly below yours.

Thank you.

I should have said most reliable modles. And please take a look at the current state of 96L and latest runs this morning and current 12z ones coming out. Showing even weaker system with even more pronounced turn to the NE.

Thanks.

[Hurricane Andrew]

NAM doesn't pop a low until 6z tonight. It seems to follow a more southerly route in it's short-medium range, skirting Hispaniola and then moving just north of Cuba.

Basically, the models look like this right now.

RECURVE
•GFS
•ECMWF
•CMC/GEM
•NAVGEM (NOGAPS)
•FIM

SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
•UKMET
•HWRF
•NAM

UNKNOWN
•JMA
•GFDL

Anyone have that GOES-5 model that was posted a while back?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS run starts in 4 minutes...

[Steve]

You can get some JMA feeds here.

http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm

[Jevo]

12z GFS Initialized


12z GFS +24

[HouTXmetro]

I guess we can finally put this theory to bed that weak=west and stong=poleward.

[tolakram]

So far, nothing.

[tolakram]

Watching the simulated IR loop tells me the GFS sees it, but does not to much through 36 hours at least.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082112/gfs_ir_watl.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wow. Things sure have changed. GFS has no sign of a closed low through 36.

[Jevo]

12z GFS +48

[northjaxpro]

Still looks weak and very elongated on the 48 hour run. Likely due to interaction with Hispaniola.

[CFLHurricane]

whelp this appears to be much ado about nothing. Again.