ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

#521 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:21 am

Looks as if there is just enough of a weakness in that 144 hr run to allow 96L to escape out to sea. Still a good ways out, so this will probably change.

#522 Postby **Jevo** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:22 am

12z GFS +150

#523 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:23 am

Nope, still there at 159, though just a blob of low pressure.

At this point I think the GFS can't resolve it, so this run doesn't tell us much other than development looks less likely than before.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014082112&var=PCPTHKPRS_850-700mb&hour=168

#524 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:25 am

tolakram wrote:Nope, still there at 159, though just a blob of low pressure.

At this point I think the GFS can't resolve it, so this run doesn't tell us much other than development looks less likely than before.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014082112&var=PCPTHKPRS_850-700mb&hour=168

Yeah, the system definitely much weaker in these runs for sure. GFS really barely keeps it as a discernable tropical cyclone .

#525 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:27 am

180 hours. Best run ever.

#526 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:30 am

Still there at 180 hours! Amazing, shows it may not be a clear cut recurve here. That is quite a change from the previous GFS run. Wonder if models will start trending more towards the UKMET and HWRF....

Of course the GFS doesn't develop it much on this run...

#527 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:31 am

At 216 the blob is moving slowly NE, so I guess you can say it escapes, eventually. Things either just got more interesting or we've been following a model storm for days.

#528 Postby **N2FSU** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:32 am

gatorcane wrote:Still there at 180 hours! Amazing, shows it may not be a clear cut recurve here. That is quite a change from the previous GFS run. Wonder if models will start trending more towards the UKMET and HWRF....

Yep, still hanging around.

#529 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:32 am

gatorcane wrote:Still there at 180 hours! Amazing, shows it may not be a clear cut recurve here. That is quite a change from the previous GFS run. Wonder if models will start trending more towards the UKMET and HWRF....

Of course the GFS doesn't develop it much on this run...

Drifts for 3-4 days NNE moving maybe a few hundred miles...

#530 Postby **N2FSU** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:40 am

tolakram wrote:At 216 the blob is moving slowly NE, so I guess you can say it escapes, eventually. Things either just got more interesting or we've been following a model storm for days.

That's a good question tolakram. Is this the first hint of a trend back to the west, or just teasing us and delaying the inevitable?

#531 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:40 am

GEM has shifted west, 102 hours below, heading NW slowly:

#532 Postby **Jevo** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:42 am

So between runs we had the GFS at 6z taking the storm and zipping it off to the Flemish Cap to now at 12z it is meandering between the Bahamas and Bermuda for 4 days.. not sure if any of the models have a hold on 96L yet because in the model world it is still just a theory as nothing has developed yet

#533 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:42 am

I will say again, and I can't stress this enough, no one is out of this yet. I will put out an actual forecast when/of 96L becomes a TD.

#534 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:43 am

The 12z CMC takes it into Miami as a strong TS in 132 hours and then into the Florida Panhandle as a cane in 174 hours.

#535 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:48 am

South Texas Storms wrote:The 12z CMC takes it into Miami as a strong TS in 132 hours and then into the Florida Panhandle as a cane in 174 hours.

That is a significant shift west with the GEM.

I don't know why the GFS wouldn't intensify this system more in the Bahamas and that might be the issue.

HWRF running now.

#536 Postby **N2FSU** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:48 am

12Z GFS +240

Gone

#537 Postby **Jevo** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:50 am

12z GEM (Canadian) +132 was out to sea yesterday.. Now agreeing with the UKMET and HWFR :double:

Weatherboy1 · #538 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:51 am

This GFS run raises the question of a Frances (2004) type of system - one that starts curving into the Bahamas and then just stalls out/slows to a crawl trying to figure out where it wants to go. Or maybe somewhat similar to Jeanne of that year, which did a loop-ti-loop before eventually heading into Florida. Although obviously both of those systems were much stronger vs. 96, which isn't even named yet.

#539 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:51 am

Another look at the GEM....these models are all over the place

PTrackerLA · #540 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:53 am

South Texas Storms wrote:The 12z CMC takes it into Miami as a strong TS in 132 hours and then into the Florida Panhandle as a cane in 174 hours.

Lol wut? And the CMC was the first model to indicate a recurve away from the east coast about 24 hours ago. Model watching is crazy!

ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

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