ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[tolakram]

Canadian, yet another look at the two landfalls.

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF will probably show a recurve out to sea now that a few models are trending towards it.

[windnrain]

Windshield wiper effect. We need something to actually form first.

[northjaxpro]

Well, GEM back in line with the HWRF and CMC and UKMET, with GEM showing two peninsula Florida landfalls. These model runs are giving me a headache LOL...

[tolakram]

Canadian = CMC = GEM, unless I'm horribly mistaken.

[northjaxpro]

Canadian = CMC = GEM, unless I'm horribly mistaken.

I told you I am getting a headache. LOL. I had a FROPA of the brain there. You are right tolakram.

[blp]

It is funny how the GFS has been chasing the CMC the last several runs. When the CMC goes one way then a run or two later the GFS shifts that way. It could be just a coincidence. Alonso is totally right though the models showing a stronger system are responding to the Ridge. I would expect the HWRF if it keeps the same intensity as before to stay put with a similar run.

[HURRICANELONNY]

As I been saying all along. The models will not be reliable till it forms. As per Dr. Jeff Masters who says pretty much the same:

. A trough of low pressure is expected to be over the U.S. East Coast early next week, and the GFS and European models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn 96L north and then northeast, keeping the storm away from the Southeast U.S. coast. However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 70%, respectively.

[blp]

FIM is recurving this now also. Would not surprise me if recon is a no go. Might not even develope at all.

[]http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014082100/t6/wind_10m_f120.png[/img]

SFLCane you are looking at the FIM8 (30km) which is a lower resolution version of the the FIM if not mistaken. The FIM9 (15km) (Gatorcane graphic) which is the highest resoultion and thus the strongest keeps it west.

[TheStormExpert]

FIM is recurving this now also. Would not surprise me if recon is a no go. Might not even develope at all.

[]http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014082100/t6/wind_10m_f120.png[/img]

SFLCane you are looking at the FIM8 which is a lower resolution version of the the FIM if not mistaken. The FIM9 (Gatorcane graphic) which is the highest resoultion and thus the strongest keeps it west.

Image please?

[wxman57]

I certainly would not pay any attention at all to the Canadian model. It's worthless for TCs. Odds are, 96L will pass near the eastern Bahamas then out to sea, east of the U.S. Coast. Could become a TS, but hurricane chances aren't high.

[gatorcane]

FIM is recurving this now also. Would not surprise me if recon is a no go. Might not even develope at all.

[]http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014082100/t6/wind_10m_f120.png[/img]

SFLCane you are looking at the FIM8 which is a lower resolution version of the the FIM if not mistaken. The FIM9 (Gatorcane graphic) which is the highest resoultion and thus the strongest keeps it west.

Image please?

00Z FIM-9:

[blp]

I certainly would not pay any attention at all to the Canadian model. It's worthless for TCs. Odds are, 96L will pass near the eastern Bahamas then out to sea, east of the U.S. Coast. Could become a TS, but hurricane chances aren't high.

Do you subscribe to the idea stronger means further west in this scenario once it get's to the Bahamas? Thanks

[wxman57]

6Z FIM 9 recurves well east of Florida and is weaker..

[Stormcenter]

Warning!!!!!!!! Model watching is for entertainment purposes only. IMO

[wxman57]

I certainly would not pay any attention at all to the Canadian model. It's worthless for TCs. Odds are, 96L will pass near the eastern Bahamas then out to sea, east of the U.S. Coast. Could become a TS, but hurricane chances aren't high.

Do you subscribe to the idea stronger means further west in this scenario once it get's to the Bahamas? Thanks

Not now, with this disturbance. Look at the BAM models. BAMD recurves earliest, BAMS (shallow/weak) takes it farther west toward the Bahamas before recurving. This system isn't looking like much of a threat to anyone. Could become a TS as it begins recurving near the Bahamas, but then it should head out to sea.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah and Ike was supposed to go out To sea also

[tolakram]

Yeah and Ike was supposed to go out To sea also

When?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

[Stormcenter]

Oh I remember Ike and yes he was suppose to go out to sea.

Yeah and Ike was supposed to go out To sea also

[hurrtracker79]

How can anyone at this stage in the process (pro or amateur) say that this will recurve or hit land. We just do not know this far out. Our science cannot predict this with much accuracy 5-8 days out. Models are obviously having a very hard time with it. Lets just relax and watch how this unfolds. Many storms including IKE/IRENE were "supposed" to curve out to sea, but we know what the end results were. Track/intensity will not be known for a few more days folks.