ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[deltadog03]

I mean, everyone asks for wxman opinion and he gave it to yall. Why bring up Ike?? Whats brutally clear is that this is a weak mess and no GOOD models show this getting above anything but that, a weak mess that moves out to sea.

[NDG]

12z HWRF dissipitated 96L after 6 hrs, lol.

[Stormcenter]

I believe it was before he was actually was classified an organized system. Just like 96L.....but I'm NOT saying that's the case here so don't shoot me.

Yeah and Ike was supposed to go out To sea also

When?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

[Alyono]

every intense model is taking it farther west

However, the intense solution appears unlikely at this time. Instead, we may end up with a TD/weak TS heading out to sea or this fails to develop

[tolakram]

12Z Euro initialized

[hurrtracker79]

I mean, everyone asks for wxman opinion and he gave it to yall. Why bring up Ike?? Whats brutally clear is that this is a weak mess and no GOOD models show this getting above anything but that, a weak mess that moves out to sea.

I think it is reasonable to discuss past systems that were in this area at this stage of the season. He was just pointing out that it has happened before where storms were modeled to take Path A, but took Path B. It is premature to believe anything the models show beyond 3 days. We all know that.

[South Texas Storms]

12z HWRF dissipitated 96L after 6 hrs, lol.

But then it shows it as a TS in the Bahamas in 90 hours.

[BobHarlem]

How can anyone at this stage in the process (pro or amateur) say that this will recurve or hit land. We just do not know this far out. Our science cannot predict this with much accuracy 5-8 days out. Models are obviously having a very hard time with it. Lets just relax and watch how this unfolds. Many storms including IKE/IRENE were "supposed" to curve out to sea, but we know what the end results were. Track/intensity will not be known for a few more days folks.

They can't, but we can look at trends and the weather patterns (Water vapor sat as well). And out to sea is more likely than not, as is it not really getting too strong. But that doesn't mean it will do that.

[hurrtracker79]

every intense model is taking it farther west

However, the intense solution appears unlikely at this time. Instead, we may end up with a TD/weak TS heading out to sea or this fails to develop

Why do you think a more intense storm is unlikely? SST's are very warm near the Bahamas, plenty of fuel. Forecasted upper level conditions do not look too bad early next week. Just want your thoughts as to why it may not get its act together as it approaches the Bahamas. Thanks!

[blp]

Don't know if this is old but the HWRF still holding onto strong system on 12UTC

[meriland23]

Its way too soon to be like " yup, out to sea" or " yup, landfall". Its like trying to predict the color of your kids eyes and hair before they're even born.

[South Texas Storms]

12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.

[tolakram]

24h

[stormlover2013]

lets see what the euro shows

[blp]

12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.

Wow that has my attention. so that intensity graphic was right borderline CAT3 in 132hrs.

[StormingB81]

12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.

Wow that has my attention. so that intensity graphic was right borderline CAT3 in 132hrs.

Is it still bringing it up through Tampa?

[gatorcane]

HWRF was upgraded this past year and has done quite well in the Pacific plus I think it was more accurate than the GFS with Arthur. Not sure about Bertha.

[South Texas Storms]

12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.

Wow that has my attention. so that intensity graphic was right borderline CAT3 in 132hrs.

No, that graphic showed what the 6z HWRF forecasted. The new 12z run shows it becoming a Category 1 hurricane.

[Jevo]

Disregard was 6Z

[meriland23]

12z HWRF shows a cane hitting Miami in 120 hours. It's been pretty consistent with it's track.

HWRF is always consistent. Either consistent and wrong or consistent and right.