ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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gatorcane
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#661 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:07 pm

I find the GFS operational often follows the consensus of the GFS ensembles from the previous run. Here they are from the 12Z and this time no real agreement. Notice several ensembles no longer develop this:

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#662 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:15 pm

18Z GFS run starts in 15 minutes...
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#663 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:39 pm

GFS looks like a double face palm run
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Re:

#664 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS run starts in 15 minutes...


Site I'm using seems to be uploading slowly, so I looked at the NAM ("forgive me Lord, for I have sinned" ..LOL) - Looks like out to see here too

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model
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#665 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:40 pm

more realistic looking at 48 hours
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#666 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:44 pm

18z GFS +24

Image

18z GFS +48

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#667 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:50 pm

it looks like the GFS is following the center SW of the center the recon found which I believe is the center of the gyre and that is why it skims Hispaniola

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#668 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:53 pm

18Z GFS +60
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#669 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:54 pm

18z GFS +72

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#670 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:58 pm

It might just be me but I think the GFS is too slow with this. 96L is racing right now and with a possible center reformation further west near the convection that is only going to speed up its forward progress.
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#671 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:06 pm

18z GFS +96

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#672 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:07 pm

At 102 hours, it's just drifting north.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#673 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:09 pm

By the way, these are the 12z GFS Ensembles. It's pretty interesting to see the operational GFS has been consistently to the west of most of its' ensemble runs.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#674 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:10 pm

Image
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#675 Postby ninel conde » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:11 pm

if it can get trapped in the bahamas it might end up a threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#676 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:11 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Image

Ridge back in place, where shall it go now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#677 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:12 pm

18Z GFS +120

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#678 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:13 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:http://i.imgur.com/5LWSk2J.png[/img]

Ridge back in place, where shall it go now?


Image

:think:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#679 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:15 pm

137 - 150 drifting very slowly NE.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014082118&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=150
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#680 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:15 pm

Out to sea. :lol:

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