ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[tolakram]

Final frame for this view.

[NDG]

18z HWRF continuous with its west solution. The model is either that good or that bad with 96L at the end, nothing in between, lol.

[JPmia]

Note the size of this TC on the HWRF model.. that's quite large and would impact ALL of South Florida.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Note the size of this TC on the HWRF model.. that's quite large and would impact ALL of South Florida.

That's the simulated radar view because it completed first. Not sure how realistic the size is and I'd rather see the 850mb wind speed when it finished to judge.

[tolakram]

Wind speed graphic, last frame.



Loop here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2014082118/hwrf-p_mslp_uv850_96L.html

[tolakram]

Note how it really slows down in the Bahamas, like it's almost escaping the the NE but it's not. Since this run is slower than the last I have to think it's fair to say it's to the right of the last run and we may see it recurve on future runs if the trend to the right continues.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JPmia]

HWRF shows an intensifying hurricane heading toward Homestead/Miami.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

HWRF shows an intensifying hurricane heading toward Homestead/Miami.

It has for the last 5 runs now.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Keep in mind that the HWRF was by far the most accurate model at 5 days last year.

[SFLcane]

Note how it really slows down in the Bahamas, like it's almost escaping the the NE but it's not. Since this run is slower than the last I have to think it's fair to say it's to the right of the last run and we may see it recurve on future runs if the trend to the right continues.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually from the look of the satellite you can tell its been pushed west ridge over head. This run is actually a tad further south.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Keep in mind that the HWRF was by far the most accurate model at 5 days last year.

Yep, even beating out the official forecast and the ECMWF. Keep in mind that it did well with Arthur as well.

That said, every storm is a different test for computer models. Just because it was right before doesn't mean it will be now.

[SouthFloridian92]

Where does HWRF show the storm heading after it runs into Miami?

[tolakram]

Where does HWRF show the storm heading after it runs into Miami?

The run ends with it off the coast. The previous run had it over Florida, which is why I pointed out how it's slowed down.

[ronjon]

I wonder if the differences in the models are related to storm strength. Both the Euro and GFS have fairly weak systems while HWRF and CMC have really strong storms.

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF has been very consistent with its forecast. I'm not sure I have ever seen the HWRF so consistent with such little variation in the track. Makes you stop and wonder if it is seeing something the GFS and Euro are not.

[wzrgirl1]

Someone said a few pages back that in this particular case a stronger storm would not mean more poleward like usual but I didn't catch why. Can someone please explain? Thanks.

[Alyono]

Someone said a few pages back that in this particular case a stronger storm would not mean more poleward like usual but I didn't catch why. Can someone please explain? Thanks.

its because it would move slow enough to allow the ridge to build back in

However, this can also hit the coast by moving too quickly, resulting in it being farther west before it feels the weakness

[floridasun78]

Final frame for this view.

that look like andrew

[wzrgirl1]

Perfect thanks.

Someone said a few pages back that in this particular case a stronger storm would not mean more poleward like usual but I didn't catch why. Can someone please explain? Thanks.

its because it would move slow enough to allow the ridge to build back in

However, this can also hit the coast by moving too quickly, resulting in it being farther west before it feels the weakness

[Bocadude85]

Final frame for this view.

that look like andrew

I wouldn't worry to much, the chances of this coming to fruition are low. Let's see if the HWRF continues to show this scenario tomorrow night, if so we may need to start to worry.