At what point does Isabel put the brakes on and turn NW?

[Anonymous]

Currently, she is motoring along on a very determined/steady path at about 275-280. The speed is also quite interesting as well. That is whay I ask the question, as to when?

[chris_fit]

yea..... its going faster and slightly further west than the model say! Hope turn comes soon!

Cheers!

~Chris

[Deenac813]

NHC says for about 24 hours she will continue WNW and then make the turn.. see below


Hurricane ISABEL

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 141426
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2003

...POWERFUL ISABEL CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES...595 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

[dixiebreeze]

Terrific question Big EZ (she says wryly). BTW, that much heralded trough isn't looking all that impressive at this point, but time will tell, I guess. Wonder if they'll have to give up on this one, too.

[Deenac813]

, that much heralded trough isn't looking all that impressive at this point, but time will tell, I guess. Wonder if they'll have to give up on this one, too.

I hope not.. if the that trough does not pick her up then what?

[Guest]

So with the turn happening within the next 24 hours how far will she actually be from the coastline when she turns?

I know I as such silly questions....

[Lindaloo]

They always say that ticka!! lol. Guess she will turn when she is good and ready like that pain in the rear cane did with Texas. What was the name again?

[Guest]

Claudette.... Isabel's stepsister .....

Well I have faith in the official forecast - there is always a degree of error of a 100 miles or so but seeing how large a storm Isabel is wonder if her squalls would affect any of the coastal area inland?

[Anonymous]

That is my point.

The way I figure it. She will move another 280 miles on the current projected path and spped. That would put her very close to the Bahama's the way I figure it. With that said. I would be inclined to beleive her momentum would then carry her slighty more to the WNW, before she bgins her actual turn. Then how close would she be to the Fla. coastline? I would say it's going to be a very close call for Fla., still, if she keeps on this current heading she is on.

[BEER980]

Ticka At current speed she would travel about 300 miles more in the West direction or is that North West direction. Your wobble and mileage may vary though.

[Deenac813]

I am not saying the same will happen.. but wasnt there a close call with Florida for Floyd too?? I seem to remember it coming very close to us before turning.. (well close anyway--for a Hurricane!)

[wxman57]

See my post (nearby) with 18Z Streamlines for a clue....

[jj]

They always say that ticka!! lol. Guess she will turn when she is good and ready like that pain in the rear cane did with Texas. What was the name again?

GILBERT!

[BEER980]

I believe Floyd came within 60 - 100 miles of the coast (near Daytona Beach?).

[Islandgirl]

You are correct. Floyd was too close for comfort.

[Deenac813]

I believe Floyd came within 60 - 100 miles of the coast (near Daytona Beach?).

If Isabel comes that close we may feel some weather from her.. but I dont think she will get that close.. now if I wake up tomorrow morning & she still hasnt turned.. then maybe SOME weather from her

[Lindaloo]

thanks jj.... but I was referring to Claudette.

I have alot of faith in the NHC too. I believe Claudette stumped them too for about 10 seconds. lol.

I am sure alot of the east coast could actually feel ome effects from her. Such as large dangerous swells, rip currents, maybe even some rain.

All I know is I feel heavy hearted for those she is aiming for.