ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Subtle differences in the intensity of 96L and the strength/shape of the EC trough are going to be huge...and all of this is happening in the 96-120 hour period.

A difference of a degree or two west/north is huge. So far, CMC, NOGAPS have shifted west, and assuming UKMET stays consistent on the west side of the envelope and the HWRF stays consistent with the last 5 runs - the GFS becomes the outlier.

Either way, there will probably be a tropical cyclone sitting in the Bahamas by early next week in a weak steering environment in late August. Should make for an interesting weekend.

MW

Evening MW been awhile great to see you here, and getting your thoughts complicated to say the least.

[Steve]

Miami Storm, I'm glad you brought that up, because some try to use that in a simplistic sense to promote an agenda be it positive or negative. Sure, sometimes weather patterns come close to repeating. But they also evolve seasonally. And that is too often ignored. What something does in June won't have the same consequences or implications in say September or January. So yeah, we had a lot of fronts make their way into the Gulf earlier this summer placing a trough in the means with an axis somewhat around Mobile's longitude. But that changes as the summer progresses until you get the proverbial high tide of summer where generally the mean trough axis will tend to back west. And I realize that's an oversimplification as troughs in El Niño or La Niña years tend to act differently. In this case, the trough that would lift 96L out is of slightly different origin as we actually have somewhat of a flipped pattern with mean trough in the Western US. Take what you read with a grain of salt, and eventually you will figure out whose ideas are worth treading, considering or ignoring.

[Alyono]

Canadian ends up taking it to the MS/AL Border. Just cannot see it making it that far west

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Miami Storm, I'm glad you brought that up, because some try to use that in a simplistic sense to promote an agenda be it positive or negative. Sure, sometimes weather patterns come close to repeating. But they also evolve seasonally. And that is too often ignored. What something does in June won't have the same consequences or implications in say September or January. So yeah, we had a lot of fronts make their way into the Gulf earlier this summer placing a trough in the means with an axis somewhat around Mobile's longitude. But that changes as the summer progresses until you get the proverbial high tide of summer where generally the mean trough axis will tend to back west. And I realize that's an oversimplification as troughs in El Niño or La Niña years tend to act differently. In this case, the trough that would lift 96L out is of slightly different origin as we actually have somewhat of a flipped pattern with mean trough in the Western US. Take what you read with a grain of salt, and eventually you will figure out whose ideas are worth treading, considering or ignoring.

Thanks Steve.

[MWatkins]

Subtle differences in the intensity of 96L and the strength/shape of the EC trough are going to be huge...and all of this is happening in the 96-120 hour period.

A difference of a degree or two west/north is huge. So far, CMC, NOGAPS have shifted west, and assuming UKMET stays consistent on the west side of the envelope and the HWRF stays consistent with the last 5 runs - the GFS becomes the outlier.

Either way, there will probably be a tropical cyclone sitting in the Bahamas by early next week in a weak steering environment in late August. Should make for an interesting weekend.

MW

Evening MW been awhile great to see you here, and getting your thoughts complicated to say the least.

My favorite aspect of the tropics is the non-linear nature of it all and the overall lack of predictability. Who doesn't like solving a mystery?

MW

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Subtle differences in the intensity of 96L and the strength/shape of the EC trough are going to be huge...and all of this is happening in the 96-120 hour period.

A difference of a degree or two west/north is huge. So far, CMC, NOGAPS have shifted west, and assuming UKMET stays consistent on the west side of the envelope and the HWRF stays consistent with the last 5 runs - the GFS becomes the outlier.

Either way, there will probably be a tropical cyclone sitting in the Bahamas by early next week in a weak steering environment in late August. Should make for an interesting weekend.

MW

Evening MW been awhile great to see you here, and getting your thoughts complicated to say the least.

My favorite aspect of the tropics is the non-linear nature of it all and the overall lack of predictability. Who doesn't like solving a mystery?

MW

Very true if you don't mind can you solve it sooner rather than later Lol.

[Steve]

Word.

Alyono, that's following it riding up the Western FL coast at 12z, so that would represent a shift of 200-250 miles west at its progged 2nd landfall. I'm guessing we will be getting some higher altitude sampling missions in the next 18-36 hours, but I haven't checked the recon schedules.

[JPmia]

00z HWRF.. slow and moving wnw through the central Bahamas toward Andros Island.. at 90hrs

[SFLcane]

HWRF so far no change in track.. strong

[JPmia]

HWRF so far no change in track.. strong

yeah it's just meandering around in the central Bahamas at around 96hrs

[Hurricane Andrew]

HWRF so far no change in track.. strong

yeah it's just meandering around in the central Bahamas at around 96hrs

Yeah...just soaking up those SSTs.

[T'Bonz]

Do y'all have a link for the HWRF?

[MWatkins]

Very true if you don't mind can you solve it sooner rather than later Lol.

LOL! If only we could solve the puzzles of time and space. Instead of that, will just have to see how this plays out...

MW

[hectopascal]

Wont be suprised to see the direction follow a very simular path to Arthur due to the amplification of an upper trough across the Eastern USA.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JPmia]

Do y'all have a link for the HWRF?

you can use this, but it's a little slower than the one I am seeing and I can't post that .. i know

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/

[SFLcane]

Here it comes...6 runs.

[meriland23]

that is very strong. Stronger than last run and sooner.

[Alyono]

pressure rises rapidly between hours 93 and 96 in the HWRF. It does have a sheared look to it in the simulated IR NO western outflow

[hectopascal]

Here it comes...6 runs.

looks north to north-north-easterly direction same as Arthur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

HWRF weaker and further east at 96 hours

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 96L_33.png (current run)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 96L_35.png (6 hours ago)