ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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JPmia
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Re:

#841 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:29 am

Alyono wrote:pressure rises rapidly between hours 93 and 96 in the HWRF. It does have a sheared look to it in the simulated IR NO western outflow


yes and it's not going west as much as the previous runs.. sniffing something up north.. this may be the pause before the recurve scenario comes in?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#842 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:31 am

Perhaps the HWRF just went toe to toe against the GFS AND Euro and the HWRF just blinked.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#843 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:34 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Perhaps the HWRF just went toe to toe against the GFS AND Euro and the HWRF just blinked.


yeah looks like it is heading northward out of the Bahamas at around 123hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#844 Postby bella_may » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:34 am

Seems like all the smaller models are shifting west again.
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#845 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:36 am

had to recurve given that the GFS had that large of a weakness. HWRF uses GFS initial and boundary conditions

That said, recurve remains he most likely scenario. I'd be surprised if this make it past 78W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#846 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:36 am

JPmia wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Perhaps the HWRF just went toe to toe against the GFS AND Euro and the HWRF just blinked.


yeah looks like it is heading northward out of the Bahamas at around 123hrs



Looks like the westward trend has come to an end for the HWRF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#847 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:36 am

well it finally broke the SFL landfall scenario.. meandering through the Bahamas and then north.. end of the run at 126hrs
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#848 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:42 am

ECMWF 00z 00hr
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#849 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:52 am

ECMWF 00z 24hr
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#850 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:55 am

HWRF still moving NW at the end of the forecast period. However, it is MUCH weaker
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#851 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:59 am

ECMWF 00Z 48hr
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#852 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:07 am

ECMWF 00z 72hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#853 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:09 am

:uarrow: Decently SW of yesterday's 00z run, and also today's 12z run (though the time frames don't match up since I can only get the 24 hour grahpics)
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Re:

#854 Postby hectopascal » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:10 am

Alyono wrote:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014082200/hwrf_mslp_wind_96L_33.png (current run)


T4 Cat1 run there.

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#855 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:14 am

ECMWF 00z 96hr
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#856 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:21 am

ECMWF 00z 120hr ( a good bit further west and slower this run)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#857 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:23 am

Perhaps we are starting to see better model consensus tonight, except for the CMC. Tonight's HWRF switched a little to the right while the latest euro a little to the left.
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#858 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:28 am

ECMWF 00z 144hr ( getting too close for comfort)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#859 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:34 am

NDG wrote:Perhaps we are starting to see better model consensus tonight, except for the CMC. Tonight's HWRF switched a little to the right while the latest euro a little to the left.


Looks like most like a weak storm moving into the southern Bahamas, and then spending 24-48 hours slowly lifting out NNW from there.
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#860 Postby meriland23 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:36 am

ECMWF 00z 168hr
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