ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#601 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:55 am

It sure looks like it's trying to reform a center well south of Puerto Rico.
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#602 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:01 am

I thought conditions were supposed to be favorable. This Atlantic...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#603 Postby chaser1 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:15 am

:uarrow: Atlantic conditions "are favorable" (if you're on a cruise ship) :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#604 Postby chaser1 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:20 am

Seems as if we're still trying to work out instability and SAL. I know its way up in the N. Atlantic but boy I sure hope we don't see that huge Volcano blow in Iceland. Granted, particulates and ask would most affect air travel to the east towards Europe, but somehow one has to wonder if and where some of the smaller airborne particulates spread out throughout Earth's N. Hemisphere over time??
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#605 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:06 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED 200 NM MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N62W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN W FROM THE LOW FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND GALE FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A GALE
WARNING IS ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
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#606 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:09 am

IMO this has to be relocating somewhere south of Puerto Rico. And the models are not garbage at all! The 00z GFS was the first to sniff out this possible center relocation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#607 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:11 am

could there be not only a center relocation but maybe 2 tropical cyclone trying to form from this, that would be something

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#608 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:22 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#609 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:22 am

Hurricaneman wrote:could there be not only a center relocation but maybe 2 tropical cyclone trying to form from this, that would be something

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If that was the case then it's looks like that area that was original behind 96L days ago never mixed in, but that seems HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#610 Postby alienstorm » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:49 am

The center is not relocating if we look at the San Juan radar we can tell that the main vortex at the mid-level is just NNE of San Juan. This system is complex in that there were two entities fighting for dominance, until they consolidate completely (by Saturday) then we will start to see development.

Another interesting point is that it is now moving almost due west and a little slower so we will see what transpire in the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#611 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:50 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#612 Postby abajan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:53 am

tailgater wrote:this is interesting.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF
Yeah, it's interesting now but since it's a real-time image, a week from now peeps are going to be asking themselves, "What's so interesting about that?"

EDIT: Then again, I'm not sure about that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#613 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:02 am

abajan wrote:
tailgater wrote:this is interesting.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF
Yeah, it's interesting now but since it's a real-time image, a week from now peeps are going to be asking themselves, "What's so interesting about that?"

EDIT: Then again, I'm not sure about that.


I'm wondering what's interesting about it now. Looks like a beagle just east of Newfoundland...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#614 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:06 am

Is that it, just north of PR?

saved image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#615 Postby alienstorm » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:08 am

tolakram wrote:Is that it, just north of PR?

saved image
[img ]http://imageshack.com/a/img674/5748/OMTDWk.gif[/img]


That is it ...
Last edited by tolakram on Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#616 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:09 am

Yes. :uarrow: Saved loop. Drought buster for PR yes!!.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#617 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:09 am

tolakram wrote:Is that it, just north of PR?

saved image
http://imageshack.com/a/img674/5748/OMTDWk.gif


Surface obs across PR indicate that the rotation north of PR is not at the surface. Winds are NE all across PR, south of that feature. Looks like a wave axis is approaching PR now, but there is no LLC.

Enjoy the rain, Cycloneye! I've measured 7" so far this month and 8" last month here in Houston.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#618 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote:Yes. :uarrow: Saved loop. Drought buster for PR yes!!.

https://imageshack.com/a/img539/8193/Zq4PYY.gif]


Excellent!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#619 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:17 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#620 Postby caribepr » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:17 am

cycloneye wrote:Yes. :uarrow: Saved loop. Drought buster for PR yes!!.

https://imageshack.com/a/img539/8193/Zq4PYY.gif


The rain has just about let up here for now but lots of lovely water! Hardly any wind at all (or at least not where I am)
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