ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Well, I guess the HWRF was that "bad" with 96L the last 2-3 days, lol.
Should serve us right for never to question the 2 big boys, King Euro and the GFS

The HWRF's 06z run has trended into slightly more agreement with the GFS and Euro. Hey it's a start!

[NDG]

Well, I guess the HWRF was that "bad" with 96L the last 2-3 days, lol.
Should serve us right for never to question the 2 big boys, King Euro and the GFS

The HWRF's 06z run has trended into slightly more agreement with the GFS and Euro. Hey it's a start!

Actually, it should not be more "slightly", it is now in "full" agreement with the GFS and the Euro, it does not get 96L past 74W before it does a 90 deg recurve if not 45 deg recurve, lol.

[gatorcane]

A lot of attention on the HWRF, but the ECMWF was the first model to show a weak 96l moving rapidly through the northern Carib and Leewards with a recurve near the Bahamas. We couldn't believe how fast it moved it.

Has not budged since that run earlier this week. So far it has been right.

[tolakram]

Good deal. I figured when the HWRF started slowing down it was eventually going to recognize the recurve. Let's hope this sticks now, stays away from all islands after it strengthens, and we squeeze a major out of it.

[tolakram]

From the 0Z Euro run. Hopefully it won't get trapped and move any further west.

[TheStormExpert]

From the 0Z Euro run. Hopefully it won't get trapped and move any further west.

How far off the Outer Banks would that be? The last thing folks in that area would want is another storm.

[blp]

We try to look at the other models, but the reality usually sets in that these two models are in another league. They have withstood the test of time. Once they bite onto something together and you get a few consistent runs forget about it, they don't lose.

The Ukmet is going to end up busting pretty good now but I will give it credit on the cyclogensis which it was first to pick up on.

[Janie2006]

Oi. You lot just remember who nailed Ivan 10 days out....that's right, the UKMET. *darned kids these days, I'm taking my Union flag and going home, no respect, no respect*

It's going to be very, very difficult to go against the big two, especially given the progressive pattern over North America this summer. The persistent troughiness in the East and extending into the Atlantic, that's been constant, nearly every couple off weeks or so, if not sooner. In other words, looks like a fish to me as well.

[tolakram]

Talk of a possible split as well, with the southern part of the wave spawning something else. We shall see.

I also note the CMC tried to hit New Orleans again. Good ole CMC is back.

[NDG]

A lot of attention on the HWRF, but the ECMWF was the first model to show a weak 96l moving rapidly through the northern Carib and Leewards with a recurve near the Bahamas. We couldn't believe how fast it moved it.

Has not budged since that run earlier this week. So far it has been right.

Yeap, King Euro has once again told us that it is the best model to follow in the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

Tricky forecast for sure. It definitely seems like it is a question of how much that ridge builds in, and whether it stalls out completely or gets forced west.

[stormlover2013]

I mean wonder what the odds are that the GFS and EURO are wrong??

[tolakram]

I mean wonder what the odds are that the GFS and EURO are wrong??

I'd say low, but we've had some bad failures with a tricky upper air environment before, and recently. I'm just not sure it's so tricky anymore, but the euro does bend it back a bit before sending it out so there is something to consider.

[TheAustinMan]

Here's the CIMSS contoured vorticity display on the storm -

[Florida1118]

Could someone kinda explain this to me? I'm slightly confused why the plots show it N of PR but the vorticity has gone S.

[TheAustinMan]

I would think that since the current official position for 96L is north of the Virgin Islands (19.2°N, 65.1°W) the models are initializing from there and thus projecting the track out from there.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure how the models decide where to initialize, but they can certainly be in the wrong place when a system is not well formed yet. It doesn't seem to matter much in this case. GFS took it south then over Hispaniola, Euro keeps it north, both recurve.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm not sure how the models decide where to initialize, but they can certainly be in the wrong place when a system is not well formed yet. It doesn't seem to matter much in this case. GFS took it south then over Hispaniola, Euro keeps it north, both recurve.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like a Bertha redux to me...ugly, unclassic in looks and fishlike..

[chaser1]

We try to look at the other models, but the reality usually sets in that these two models are in another league. They have withstood the test of time. Once they bite onto something together and you get a few consistent runs forget about it, they don't lose.

The Ukmet is going to end up busting pretty good now but I will give it credit on the cyclogensis which it was first to pick up on.

Yeah, I was dead sure this system was forming and moving south of "the rock". Was thinking the UK was on to something because it was at least south of the other models and the trough was simply being "over-played". Furthermore, earlier on it just seemed obvious that we were simply going to see a predominance of higher latitude storms this season, especially off the S.E. US coastline and here we go. For as good as 96L looked well east of the Southern Windwards, I should have known that the MDR was still suffering from the "2013 Flu" LOL. I suppose some vindication of forecast would come from a southern end of the present wave to break off and develop in the NW Caribbean heading to the N. Gulf Coast, but that would truly be unexpected at this point. Oh well.."Forecast FAIL" on my part

[sunnyday]

The way things have been for the past couple of years, we could have all saved a lot of time by simple printing the word RECURVE and not falling for all of the model pictures showing everywhere from Texas to Bermuda as targets of a cyclone!