ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[blp]

There is nothing apparent at the surface anywhere. Looks like two vort maxes one north and one south of PR. The north one would seem to have the best odds going for it in the long term but who knows with this thing.

[TheStormExpert]

This thing is just a total mess and I'm thinking now development if any will not happen until it is in the region of the Southeastern Bahamas.

[alienstorm]

There is nothing apparent at the surface anywhere. Looks like two vort maxes one north and one south of PR. The north one would seem to have the best odds going for it in the long term but who knows with this thing.

Agreed 110%

[cycloneye]

The Best Track at 12z has the position just north of the NE tip of PR.

AL, 96, 2014082212, , BEST, 0, 192N, 651W, 35, 1009, DB

[HeeBGBz]

I was thinking 16°n and 68° w?

[nativefloridian]

I was thinking 16°n and 68° w?

I'm in agreement with your observation. Looks to me what appears to be the coc is just south of PR.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the San Juan radar the original vortmax is the dominant one and seems to be firmly taking over now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[nativefloridian]

looking at the San Juan radar the original vortmax is the dominant one and seems to be firmly taking over now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.....or could we be witnessing the birth of twins??

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a circulation just north of San Juan.

[canes04]

Any obs south of PR? Can we get 2 systems out of this mess?

[tolakram]

Winds out of the North now in San Juan. You would expect the wind to be from the southwest or south if there was a well defined LLC, correct?

[tolakram]

Any obs south of PR? Can we get 2 systems out of this mess?

I made mention of it in the models thread, but when this has happened before it's days later as the wave continues to move west, and it 's not common.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Obs indicate a wave axis moving into eastern PR now. There is no evidence of any surface circulation in the obs. The wave is approaching a trof over the central Bahams. Look for the moisture to begin streaming northward today.

[tropicwatch]

A split would be interesting and there does appear to be a large circulation south of PR.

['CaneFreak]

Any circulation north of PR is now getting sheared at 30-40 knots. However, it does appear that any true circulation center would now be south of PR according to the vorticity charts.

[Gustywind]

Heavy showers and isolated tstorms are falling in Guadeloupe since this morning. Cycloneye enjoy it but be on your guard.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a circulation just north of San Juan. [/Quote]

I'm pretty sure that's the weak center.

The Atlantic continues to crush forming systems.

[SFLcane]

Obs indicate a wave axis moving into eastern PR now. There is no evidence of any surface circulation in the obs. The wave is approaching a trof over the central Bahams. Look for the moisture to begin streaming northward today.

wxman this shows the vort maybe to the south of PR? Regardless its recurving thanks to semi-permanent trof

[abajan]

Heavy showers and isolated tstorms are falling in Guadeloupe since this morning. Cycloneye enjoy it but be on your guard.

We're getting isolated thunderstorms here too. Winds generally out of the SE. BIG system for sure!

[TheAustinMan]

Here's the CIMSS contoured vorticity display on the storm -


I moved this post from the models section so if you're wondering about duplicates, that's why.