ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

It duz seem to be "better looking" than yesterday at this time - just my opinion...

[Kludge]

Possible surface low trying to form south west of Puerto Rico.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,13.25,674

WOW!!! What a fantastic site!!! Thanks!!

[wzrgirl1]

I don't see anything for recon to fly into this afternoon. Perhaps they'll cancel? No development today.

According to the recon thread they are still going in.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm glad they're sending recon out in two hours, it should help understand what's going on north of Puerto Rico. Radar shows a circulation, but there's no way of knowing whether it's closed or not. If it is, convection is sustained and organized enough to declare this a tropical depression/storm.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't see anything for recon to fly into this afternoon. Perhaps they'll cancel? No development today.

I agree. There is nothing there. If they want to fly into something go check out Marie and research a real storm. For that matter will have some stronger systems blow up over the US later today.

[crimi481]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,13.25,674

Looking at this - the track may be adjusted s and w

[deltadog03]

I think JB is saying, cuz I just watched it, that there is some possibility that the southern piece will branch off and could get going as it heads WNW. The EURO DID develop that when it had its GOM storm. It had 2 pieces until it ditched that idea a couple of days ago. The carrib is going to be very favorable.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hey crimi. remember you cant have a track without a point.

[abajan]

Possible surface low trying to form south west of Puerto Rico.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,13.25,674

WOW!!! What a fantastic site!!! Thanks!!

Yep, I saw that link for the first time about a week ago but I only just discovered that the globe can be rotated by clicking and dragging it.

[Hammy]

How possible is it at this point that all of the models are wrong and nothing forms? This isn't getting any better organized, and if anything, has been losing organization over the last two days. The max vorticity is on the edge of the upper high, which is producing shear, and it looks like it's got a good shot of going lengthwise over Hispaniola.

[tolakram]

How possible is it at this point that all of the models are wrong and nothing forms? This isn't getting any better organized, and if anything, has been losing organization over the last two days. The max vorticity is on the edge of the upper high, which is producing shear, and it looks like it's got a good shot of going lengthwise over Hispaniola.

It's not supposed to organize until tomorrow, at the earliest. The euro doesn't show a solid low until 48 hours from last nights run, and the GFS was at 42 to 48 hours, so anything happening today would be unexpected, in my opinion. The GFS also had the apparent center south of PR and moving over Hispaniola.

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting feature just NW of PR. Storm-relative velocities from San Juan radar give hints that a weak circ is trying to form.

[wxman57]

Agree, best chance for development is Sunday/Monday as it slows down near central Bahamas. Nothing today, that's for sure.

[Thunder44]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,13.25,674

Looking at this - the track may be adjusted s and w

It shows a sharp wave axis.

[tolakram]

Interesting feature just NW of PR. Storm-relative velocities from San Juan radar give hints that a weak circ is trying to form.

Might be able to see it in this saved loop, but if nothing else look at that drought busting rain!

[cycloneye]

Yes Mark,the rivers are going up and towards the lakes. Here is the main lake that provides water to San Juan.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv/?site_no=50059000

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Interesting feature just NW of PR. Storm-relative velocities from San Juan radar give hints that a weak circ is trying to form.

This is the same low-level circulation that we've been tracking for the past 24 hours.

[Frank2]

Funny, per the posts (including mine) some say they see a circulation center NW, NE, E, or SW of Puerto Rico - guess it depends on who's doing the looking : )

[Sanibel]

19-67

There's a tower bursting over it. Could finally be forming now.

[NDG]

The vorticity now NW of P.R., north of Mona's Pass, is the one taking over, good choice by the NHC to keep tracking that one instead.
It has been moving almost due west all morning long.