ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[somethingfunny]

Everybody's been talking about how wonderfully consistent HWRF has been. Well, GFDL has been very consistent as well except it's been consistently showing a weak tropical storm going out to sea, which is too boring to post frames of on a mainly-for-entertainment-purposes computer models thread.

Anyway the HWRF shifted offshore at 6z, and the 6z GFDL shifted to this solution




If anyone wants my own darn opinion, I'm pretty sure the Euro has been doing this approximately right for a week now.

[JPmia]

12z CMC still shows it hitting Miami in 108 hours.

Well, now we know it won't go there!

[OuterBanker]

Everybody's been talking about how wonderfully consistent HWRF has been. Well, GFDL has been very consistent as well except it's been consistently showing a weak tropical storm going out to sea, which is too boring to post frames of on a mainly-for-entertainment-purposes computer models thread.

Anyway the HWRF shifted offshore at 6z, and the 6z GFDL shifted to this solution




If anyone wants my own darn opinion, I'm pretty sure the Euro has been doing this approximately right for a week now.

Good old goofdl.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my analysis, I can see six possible solutions:

Scenario 1 – Cyclone forms soon, strong steering flow

The early development seems to be the most common thinking among the models, developing 96L into Tropical Storm Cristobal quickly and Hurricane Cristobal later. Some models analyze a deep upper-level trough that is generally believed to be staying in place near 65W longitude (GFS especially seems to agree). As the two systems phase near Bermuda, the cyclone would likely head out to sea quickly in this scenario. A building upper-level ridge over the Southeastern US would help block any attempt to turn the system towards the coastline. 10% chance. I believe the upper-level trough is severely overdone and it would take a very strong hurricane – via rapid intensification – to get involved at the 500mb level or higher. This isn’t like Sandy.

Scenario 2 – Cyclone forms soon, weak steering flow

Similar to Scenario 1, a storm quickly develops north of the Greater Antilles. However, it cannot completely phase with the upper-level trough, likely due to lower intensity. As a result, the ridges surrounding the storm build in and block the progress for a while it moves erratically through the western Atlantic off the Southeastern US coast for several days. Eventually, the eastern part of the ridge should break down and allow the system to move out to sea. 40% chance. This seems like the most likely scenario IMO and has the most model support, but it certainly isn’t the only plausible scenario.

Scenario 3 – Cyclone forms soon, block forms and loops

Similar to Scenario 2, except the ridge builds in faster and erases the trough from memory. This creates a situation similar to, say, Jeanne of 2004 where the storm is helplessly looping east of the Bahamas. Whichever feature gets a hold of the storm next would dictate its next move – whether towards the coast or out to sea. 10% chance. This has no model support and would require closing off the trough very quickly to block against even a strong hurricane.

Scenario 4 – Delayed development

Although the general idea is similar to the first three scenarios, it doesn’t develop for another 48 hours or so in this case. That removes the trough from influence altogether. Even if it strengthens, it doesn’t have any real steering flow other than to continue westward. The CMC scenario takes this into Florida and likely the NE Gulf Coast, which isn’t all that far-fetched really. 20% chance. It doesn’t seem all that unrealistic that it will hold up, and the trough can’t do nothing there. Second most likely scenario IMO.

Scenario 5 – Significantly delayed development

The track continues into Hispaniola as a weak cyclone or wave and development does not occur until much later, near Cuba or the Florida Straits. With no obvious shallow-layer steering flow and a strong block, it becomes a slow mover in the Gulf of Mexico, like 2012’s Debby. 5% chance. No model support, but worth mentioning.

Scenario 6 – No development

Shear, dry air and ESPECIALLY land interaction tear this system apart. Track turns it west into Hispaniola and never redevelops. 15% chance. While it has no model support, it is certainly not impossible.

[Jevo]

GFDL - Even a broken clock is correct twice a day

How about this.. They're all wrong and nothing develops. What ever do we doooooo

[Jevo]

Words

Crazy that was a great post; well thought out and backed up by facts. Thank You

[StarmanHDB]

GFDL - Even a broken clock is correct twice a day

How about this.. They're all wrong and nothing develops. What ever do we doooooo

UMMMMMMM....Maybe concentrate on work instead of spending so much time on Storm2K?

[hurricanekid416]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on my analysis, I can see six possible solutions:

Scenario 1 – Cyclone forms soon, strong steering flow

The early development seems to be the most common thinking among the models, developing 96L into Tropical Storm Cristobal quickly and Hurricane Cristobal later. Some models analyze a deep upper-level trough that is generally believed to be staying in place near 65W longitude (GFS especially seems to agree). As the two systems phase near Bermuda, the cyclone would likely head out to sea quickly in this scenario. A building upper-level ridge over the Southeastern US would help block any attempt to turn the system towards the coastline. 10% chance. I believe the upper-level trough is severely overdone and it would take a very strong hurricane – via rapid intensification – to get involved at the 500mb level or higher. This isn’t like Sandy.

Scenario 2 – Cyclone forms soon, weak steering flow

Similar to Scenario 1, a storm quickly develops north of the Greater Antilles. However, it cannot completely phase with the upper-level trough, likely due to lower intensity. As a result, the ridges surrounding the storm build in and block the progress for a while it moves erratically through the western Atlantic off the Southeastern US coast for several days. Eventually, the eastern part of the ridge should break down and allow the system to move out to sea. 40% chance. This seems like the most likely scenario IMO and has the most model support, but it certainly isn’t the only plausible scenario.

Scenario 3 – Cyclone forms soon, block forms and loops

Similar to Scenario 2, except the ridge builds in faster and erases the trough from memory. This creates a situation similar to, say, Jeanne of 2004 where the storm is helplessly looping east of the Bahamas. Whichever feature gets a hold of the storm next would dictate its next move – whether towards the coast or out to sea. 10% chance. This has no model support and would require closing off the trough very quickly to block against even a strong hurricane.

Scenario 4 – Delayed development

Although the general idea is similar to the first three scenarios, it doesn’t develop for another 48 hours or so in this case. That removes the trough from influence altogether. Even if it strengthens, it doesn’t have any real steering flow other than to continue westward. The CMC scenario takes this into Florida and likely the NE Gulf Coast, which isn’t all that far-fetched really. 20% chance. It doesn’t seem all that unrealistic that it will hold up, and the trough can’t do nothing there. Second most likely scenario IMO.

Scenario 5 – Significantly delayed development

The track continues into Hispaniola as a weak cyclone or wave and development does not occur until much later, near Cuba or the Florida Straits. With no obvious shallow-layer steering flow and a strong block, it becomes a slow mover in the Gulf of Mexico, like 2012’s Debby. 5% chance. No model support, but worth mentioning.

Scenario 6 – No development

Shear, dry air and ESPECIALLY land interaction tear this system apart. Track turns it west into Hispaniola and never redevelops. 15% chance. While it has no model support, it is certainly not impossible.

What about the scenario where the system splits in two

[Jevo]

GFDL - Even a broken clock is correct twice a day

How about this.. They're all wrong and nothing develops. What ever do we doooooo

UMMMMMMM....Maybe concentrate on work instead of spending so much time on Storm2K?

So much truth to this

[CrazyC83]

What about the scenario where the system splits in two

Discarded that. Seems unrealistic.

[Jevo]

12z GEM (Canadian) 10 Day Wind Swaths...

[OuterBanker]

Everybody's been talking about how wonderfully consistent HWRF has been. Well, GFDL has been very consistent as well except it's been consistently showing a weak tropical storm going out to sea, which is too boring to post frames of on a mainly-for-entertainment-purposes computer models thread.

Anyway the HWRF shifted offshore at 6z, and the 6z GFDL shifted to this solution




If anyone wants my own darn opinion, I'm pretty sure the Euro has been doing this approximately right for a week now.

Good old goofdl.

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet out yet?

[tolakram]

Euro is running.

[meriland23]

ECMWF 12z 24hr

[tolakram]

[Jevo]

12z HWRF Track and Intensity

[meriland23]

Even further west in comparison to 00z so far..

[tolakram]

HWRF 126h

[tolakram]

72 hours