2014 EPAC Season

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Re: Re:

#941 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season continues to amaze me, this IMO is looking like it has a chance to become the E. Pacific version of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season with their also being a possibility of us reaching the Greek Alphabet! Has that ever happened before on the E. Pacific side?


No.

In 1983, we reached the W name. In October of 1985, we did as well. Shortly thereafter, the EPHC added emergency X, Y, and Z names, which are still in use today. We reached X in 1985, and Z in 1992.


For what it's worth, we got Lowell two days before 1992 got Lester, and we'll need Marie and Norbert by August 27 to keep pace. O comes on September 2, and P by the 11th.

1983 won't even hit J until August 24 and that season is basically out of the race now despite its' furious finish, but 1985 is actually ahead of everything at the moment.

1985 had Nora form on this date, and would have P by August 27th (and S by September 5)...and then 1985 really slowed down and finished the season on X.

So if we are going to beat 1992 and go Greek, we're still running a solid second place right now and within striking distance if the momentum can maintain through October.
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Re: Re:

#942 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:35 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:The 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season continues to amaze me, this IMO is looking like it has a chance to become the E. Pacific version of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season with their also being a possibility of us reaching the Greek Alphabet! Has that ever happened before on the E. Pacific side?


No.

In 1983, we reached the W name. In October of 1985, we did as well. Shortly thereafter, the EPHC added emergency X, Y, and Z names, which are still in use today. We reached X in 1985, and Z in 1992.


For what it's worth, we got Lowell two days before 1992 got Lester, and we'll need Marie and Norbert by August 27 to keep pace. O comes on September 2, and P by the 11th.

1983 won't even hit J until August 24 and that season is basically out of the race now despite its' furious finish, but 1985 is actually ahead of everything at the moment.

1985 had Nora form on this date, and would have P by August 27th (and S by September 5)...and then 1985 really slowed down and finished the season on X.

So if we are going to beat 1992 and go Greek, we're still running a solid second place right now and within striking distance if the momentum can maintain through October.


We are also behind 1982 for now. That got to L by August 9. However, the M storm did not form till the 30th. 1985 calmed down a bit after a fast start the ATL starting stealing waves. If it keeps it up, we have a chance, but I prefer not to think we'll go Greek for now. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#943 Postby Steve820 » Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:06 pm

This is a really active and incredible season so far, I wouldn't even be surprised if this season makes it to Greek letters! C'mon EPac, don't give up, and make it to Greek letters if you can! :ggreen:
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#944 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:31 am

Image

18z GFS 16 days

Image

0z GFS 16 days
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#945 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:38 pm

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12z GFS still showing long-range stuff
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#946 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:00 am

Image

Image

Still keen in the long range.
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#947 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:39 pm

GFS still keen on the long range.

EPAC's been a pretty crazy place for a month now.

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#948 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:58 am

Season Tally to-date
14 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

ACE 100 :D

Soon to be 14/9/6 based on NHC's forecast for Marie.
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#949 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:29 am

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0z GFS has long range Baja threat

Image

6z GFS shows a second storm
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#950 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:23 pm

I think the baja, NW coast of Mexico needs to be on alert the coming weeks following Marie. Trof anomalies are showing up in the cpc superensembles as well as long term guidance out west typical of instraseasonal changes. As we head deeper into the season these things may recurve and effect Mexico/SW US. These runs of the GFS, individually may not pan exactly, but shows the increased risk of something that will probably occur.
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Re:

#951 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:30 pm

Ntxw wrote:I think the baja, NW coast of Mexico needs to be on alert the coming weeks following Marie. Trof anomalies are showing up in the cpc superensembles as well as long term guidance out west typical of instraseasonal changes. As we head deeper into the season these things may recurve and effect Mexico/SW US. These runs of the GFS, individually may not pan exactly, but shows the increased risk of something that will probably occur.


IT's that time of year again. There's a big warm pool of near 30C water just left of Marie's projected path. Grante,d the troughing set up over the Central United States favors SW Mexico, but that could easily change. I think I've posted here before that the setup that favors big NW Mexico/Baja landfalls is when you have a big cold front over the Pacific Northwest.

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#952 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:39 pm

I think that if those vorticies splitting 96L apart ever fully split, the southern lobe may end up being an EPAC storm.
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Re:

#953 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:46 pm

somethingfunny wrote:I think that if those vorticies splitting 96L apart ever fully split, the southern lobe may end up being an EPAC storm.


If Marie can get out of the way and by the time it gets there so they won't interact, then, yes. EPAC is on an epic hot streak.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#954 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:14 pm

For those who may not know,the origin of Marie came from the wave that was 94L.
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season

#955 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:For those who may not know,the origin of Marie came from the wave that was 94L.


Iselle was also TD Two in the ATL
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#956 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:34 pm

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Norbert

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Odile
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#957 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:50 pm

2014 has one of the highest ACE [to-date] since reliable records began. This season will be one of the most active seasons ever. ACE now is at 103 surpassing the entire yearly ACE of 2012 and 2013. It is still late August. Interesting to note that the activity took place when there was no MJO, so when the MJO arrives it would increase a lot more and also the ACE.

East Pacific Comparison [to-date] in terms of ACE

1997: 79.683
2014: 103.00

1997 ended up having 167 units at the end of the season, and is the 10th highest yearly ACE since reliable records began in 1965.

But 1992 has 141.347 units; 1994 had around 115 units mainly due to John.

So, if that trend continues, it is very likely that 2014 will have the first above-average ACE since 2006 and will have one of the top 10 values since 1965. It is very likely that 2014 will be higher than 1997 as shown in the comparison. This also proves that 2014 is a hyperactive year in terms of tropical cyclones over the eastern Pacific.

Despite being behind 1994 in terms of ACE, I think 2014 will surpass that year.
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#958 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:12 am

Why only comparing to 1992 and 1994?

The Euro is forecast unfavorable MJO to enter the basin soon. Models less aggressive on long-term activity patterns. September could be quite slow.
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#959 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:54 am

It's not a great week to go sailing.

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#960 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:12 pm

This season has been really good so far!
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