ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[tolakram]

GFS keeping this very weak though, which is a good thing.

[hurricaneCW]

This is why you can't just assume fish or OTS so easily especially when you don't even have a named or designated system yet.

[floridasun78]

ok this models see stronger high building to north remeber south fl not seen hurr since 2005 wilma we over due for hurr some day luck run out

[Evil Jeremy]

This is easily the most fun, and most unnerving model watching I've had since Debby 2012.

[tolakram]

120h

[JPmia]

If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?

[stormlover2013]

Now will there keep on being a west shift???? We shall see

[tolakram]

Stalling over the Bahamas, and now creeping over Florida, this is a serious flooding threat IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS may be underestimating strength...we shall see. Intensity models have this as a Hurricane at day 5.

[gatorcane]

surprised it would be that weak moving so slowly with those boiling SSTs and great upper environment. May see it ramp up more in future runs.

[SouthDadeFish]

Keep in mind this is just one run. Probably 1,000 mile difference in the 120 hour forecast from run to run lol. This is such a tricky forecast.

I wouldn't put too much stock into this weak storm the GFS is portraying. I'm seeing very little to keep this from intensifying over the Bahamas. Edit: That doesn't mean I'm saying this will necessarily blow up into a major cane, but I doubt it would only be a TS if the 18Z GFS upper-level conditions verified.

[perk]

I am speechless, lol.

NDG you've been at this too long to be surprised at the flip flops of the GFS.

[tolakram]

Landfall graphic

[Evil Jeremy]

Keep in mind this is just one run. Probably 1,000 mile difference in the 120 hour forecast from run to run lol. This is such a tricky forecast.

I wouldn't put too much stock into this weak storm the GFS is portraying. I'm seeing very little to keep this from intensifying over the Bahamas.

Intensity is one thing, what do you make of the track?

[tolakram]

135h, still over Florida

[meriland23]

Looks similar to GFDL a day or so ago, only difference is intensity.

[blp]

Wow, sorry I said bad things yesterday Ukmet please forgive me....

IMO 75w looks like the line. If it crosses that longitude it will enough on the side for the west push if not then it may get caught.

I love the ball anaolgy made earlier 75w is the summit.

[tolakram]

Next euro run starts at 1:45am. Will need caffeine and snacks!

[jlauderdal]

If I recall.. i think it was the GFS that had this landfall spot on SFL a few days back? Looks to be Broward/Palm B County line.. Boca area?

as a resident of NE broward i can assure you this run is suspect at best, ha

[Hammy]

I will say I don't trust GFS with the intensity forecasts as it is consistently low, it even had Arthur initialized as a 45kt system while it was a hurricane.