ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
HWRF at 45hrs is slowing it down in the Bahamas general NW heading..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:This is just a theory but perhaps the models are a little late on catching up with the fast forward motion that weperhapsseen with 96L. It might be me but in the latest sat loops it appears that it may be slowing down some. If that is the case then perhaps the models will pick up on the slow down and swing back to the east again. I have to agree with everyone that this is the most interesting system I have tracked in years since the forecast isn't so cut and dry. Gotta love the drama with the tropics. All of this and the system isn't even named yet.
SFT
Hello there everyone! Great point to be had here I think. From my opinion this storm has brought a level of excitement to watching storms perhaps has been lost recently. Also, models have maybe become more competitive as far as accuracy, in comparison to the GFS and EURO. I do agree forward speed has completely changed the game. In this case weak may indeed mean west. I think if the EURO agrees, all bets are off.
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
floridasun78 wrote:i got feeling i need get ready for strong ts or hurr in south fl i getting that feeling going look supply in case hope miami luck not ran out #The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.#
It's always good to review your hurricane plan and restock your supplies. I wouldn't be to worried about anything just yet. The models may very we'll shift back offshore on the 0z runs.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
HWRF running, 42 hours out and it's a bit SW of the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
HWRF, 45h


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M a r k
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Re:
Evil Jeremy wrote:northjaxpro wrote:Awaiting the new EURO runs shortly. Very interesting for sure.
Shortly lol? I wish. Give it another 7 1/2 hours...
LOL.. I lost track of the time when the next EURO yruns will come out. Got caught up into the model tracking frenzy. Yeah, thanks Evil Jeremy. I will say this in that many of us will be up late tonight seeing how the next set of EURO runs will show that's for sure, especially on the heels of the 18Z GFS runs we just analyzed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
JPmia wrote:tolakram wrote:HWRF, 45h
yeah it's stalling it out there again
May stick with its recurve scenario
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
54h, moving north


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Re: Re:
northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, thanks Evil Jeremy. I will say this in that many of us will be up late tonight seeing how the next set of EURO runs will show that's for sure, especially on the heels of the 18Z GFS runs we just analyzed.
You bring the pizza, I'll bring the Red Bull.
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Nice point SFT. Another alternative would be some split energy peeling off north with the trough leaving the main low pressure area back. It's been kind of weird trying to figure out over the last few days whether stronger or weaker would be west or NE as well as faster or slower. There have been good contributions and disagreements between even the pros.
FWIW, NAM 18z takes it up and out pretty quickly
FWIW, NAM 18z takes it up and out pretty quickly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
63h, still due north, staying right on 75W l


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Latest GFS will cause quite a stir. Can anyone remember Donna. Hmmmm. BTW, lots of locals have decided to riot if it comes our way during Labor Day week. After we already had one on July 4. I did remind them Labor Day storms aren't all that uncommon here. Irene was the most recent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
tolakram wrote:63h, still due north, staying right on 75W l
Almost 2 degrees west of the 12z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
72h, now moving slowly NE


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Obviously way too early but at least it seems HWRF is onboard for a recurve a bit compared to the direct hit it projected last night on SFL.
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