ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1101 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:45 pm

HWRF at 45hrs is slowing it down in the Bahamas general NW heading..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1102 Postby TonyWeatherMan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:46 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:This is just a theory but perhaps the models are a little late on catching up with the fast forward motion that weperhapsseen with 96L. It might be me but in the latest sat loops it appears that it may be slowing down some. If that is the case then perhaps the models will pick up on the slow down and swing back to the east again. I have to agree with everyone that this is the most interesting system I have tracked in years since the forecast isn't so cut and dry. Gotta love the drama with the tropics. All of this and the system isn't even named yet.

SFT


Hello there everyone! Great point to be had here I think. From my opinion this storm has brought a level of excitement to watching storms perhaps has been lost recently. Also, models have maybe become more competitive as far as accuracy, in comparison to the GFS and EURO. I do agree forward speed has completely changed the game. In this case weak may indeed mean west. I think if the EURO agrees, all bets are off.
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Re:

#1103 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:46 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i got feeling i need get ready for strong ts or hurr in south fl i getting that feeling going look supply in case hope miami luck not ran out #The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.#


It's always good to review your hurricane plan and restock your supplies. I wouldn't be to worried about anything just yet. The models may very we'll shift back offshore on the 0z runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1104 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:47 pm

HWRF running, 42 hours out and it's a bit SW of the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1105 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:49 pm

HWRF, 45h

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1106 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:52 pm

tolakram wrote:HWRF, 45h

Image


yeah it's stalling it out there again
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Re: Re:

#1107 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:52 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Awaiting the new EURO runs shortly. Very interesting for sure.


Shortly lol? I wish. Give it another 7 1/2 hours...


LOL.. I lost track of the time when the next EURO yruns will come out. Got caught up into the model tracking frenzy. Yeah, thanks Evil Jeremy. I will say this in that many of us will be up late tonight seeing how the next set of EURO runs will show that's for sure, especially on the heels of the 18Z GFS runs we just analyzed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1108 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:53 pm

JPmia wrote:
tolakram wrote:HWRF, 45h

Image


yeah it's stalling it out there again


May stick with its recurve scenario
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1109 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:54 pm

54h, moving north

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Re: Re:

#1110 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:54 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, thanks Evil Jeremy. I will say this in that many of us will be up late tonight seeing how the next set of EURO runs will show that's for sure, especially on the heels of the 18Z GFS runs we just analyzed.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1111 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:54 pm

tolakram wrote:HWRF, 45h

Image

that close andros Bahamas
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#1112 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:59 pm

Nice point SFT. Another alternative would be some split energy peeling off north with the trough leaving the main low pressure area back. It's been kind of weird trying to figure out over the last few days whether stronger or weaker would be west or NE as well as faster or slower. There have been good contributions and disagreements between even the pros.

FWIW, NAM 18z takes it up and out pretty quickly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1113 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:00 pm

63h, still due north, staying right on 75W l

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1114 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:03 pm

Latest GFS will cause quite a stir. Can anyone remember Donna. Hmmmm. BTW, lots of locals have decided to riot if it comes our way during Labor Day week. After we already had one on July 4. I did remind them Labor Day storms aren't all that uncommon here. Irene was the most recent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1115 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:04 pm

HWRF..a hint of a western movement after 75hrs..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1116 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:05 pm

HWRF is still way west from 12z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1117 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:05 pm

tolakram wrote:63h, still due north, staying right on 75W l

Image


Almost 2 degrees west of the 12z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1118 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:07 pm

72h, now moving slowly NE

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1119 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:09 pm

Obviously way too early but at least it seems HWRF is onboard for a recurve a bit compared to the direct hit it projected last night on SFL.
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#1120 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:12 pm

HWRF moves it slower... hence the recurve
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