ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1141 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:32 pm

Will be interesting to see if the 0z models stick with this recent west trend, I can see them going back east just to mess with our heads.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1142 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:32 pm

tolakram wrote:105h

Image


:uarrow: 126 mph wind... :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1143 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:32 pm

114h

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1144 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:33 pm

18z nogaps...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1145 Postby JPmia » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:36 pm

HWRF .. at the end of the run it begins its NNE/NE turn
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#1146 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:37 pm

HWRF continues to deepen the storm at 114 hr, now at 971 mb this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1147 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:39 pm

123h

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#1148 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:40 pm

:uarrow: Surfs up along the East Coast...Major beach erosion if that forecast pans out!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1149 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:42 pm

Parent Grid finished, this loop gives a better picture of the slow wobbling.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2014082218/hwrf-p_mslp_uv850_96L.html

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#1150 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:45 pm

IMHO forward speed is the key here on the models. Perhaps the GFS 18z was a bit too quick and the 18z HWRF might be a bit too slow. Only time will tell. Forecast track #1 is going to be really tough for the NHC.

SFT
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Re:

#1151 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:47 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:IMHO forward speed is the key here on the models. Perhaps the GFS 18z was a bit too quick and the 18z HWRF might be a bit too slow. Only time will tell. Forecast track #1 is going to be really tough for the NHC.

SFT


When in doubt forecast a stall. :) This thing hangs around the Bahamas forever, unfortunately.
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#1152 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:48 pm

All in all it is still a big shift westward by the HWRF, by a whole 3 degrees longitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1153 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:49 pm

Anymore images from nogaps
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1154 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:07 pm

FIM...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1155 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:09 pm

SFLcane wrote:FIM...

Image

Wonder what happened after that...warm gulf.
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#1156 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:15 pm

Images showing the westward trend with some of the models:

06Z models (this morning)
Image

18Z models (now)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1157 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:19 pm

Screw the FIM. That can't be. westernmost keys popped. I never like anything hitting anywhere near south Florida or the keys from the east or southeast (Betsy, Katrina, andrew etc.).

Mark, I realize that's a pay site, but did he indicate source region? There really isn't anything on the map though models have hinted at some lowering pressures. Gotta be a piece of energy from or associated with 96L.
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#1158 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:33 pm

18Z GFS Ensembles with a concentration more west:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1159 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:39 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1160 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:40 pm

Some updated 00z models Bams etc..

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