ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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gatorcane
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#1161 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:42 pm

Nice split now as seen by the graphic above :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1162 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:Some updated 00z models Bams etc..

Image


BAM models continue with their westward shift.
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#1163 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:48 pm

gatorcane wrote:Nice split now as seen by the graphic above :uarrow:


The goto TVCN showing quick recurve in 00z...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1164 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:49 pm

If I remember correctly, the BAM models are better for less organized systems right? Hopefully when recon gets in and can sample the atmosphere we can get a more concise direction. This is 5 days out from SFL at the moment.

Morning news will go ballistic if things start shifting down here!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1165 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:56 pm

Image
00z... Getting that flat line feeling a strong ridge look to the W models...

Image
00z...
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#1166 Postby weathernerdguy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:57 pm

is the NAVGEM reliable?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1167 Postby weatherwindow » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:02 pm

[quote="SFLcane"]FIM...

Image[/quote

SFL....link for FIM, pls.....thx....Rich
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1168 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:05 pm

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Re: Re:

#1169 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Nice split now as seen by the graphic above :uarrow:


The goto TVCN showing quick recurve in 00z...


Even the TVCN has been trending a little westward during the past couple of runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1170 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1171 Postby wzrgirl1 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:38 pm

SFLcane wrote:http://i.imgur.com/VG8xFCo.jpg


This is the first season in years where I don't have any water or canned goods just in case. I should know better by now. Looking at these models I am going out in the morning to stock up regardless. Very worrisome.

*edited by sg to remove IMG tags
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#1172 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:42 pm

IMO NOAA needs to send a Gulfstream plane out for a recon mission. That will GREATLY help with the forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1173 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:IMO NOAA needs to send a Gulfstream plane out for a recon mission. That will GREATLY help with the forecast.

yep, i bet they task one soon if another gfs cycle shows florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1174 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:49 pm

As soon as jlauderdale gets his generator out and fires it up this thing will either recurve or go poof...the genny is a sure thing!!! :spam: 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1175 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:54 pm

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
B. P-3 TAKEOFFS AT 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z.
C. A G-IV RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTING KMCF AT 24/1730Z the giv flying over Bahama on 24
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1176 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:59 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Image


This is the first season in years where I don't have any water or canned goods just in case. I should know better by now. Looking at these models I am going out in the morning to stock up regardless. Very worrisome.



I wouldn't get all worried yet. Plenty of time for the models to do a 180 and flip flop again and again. Which in all likelihood they will. Just look at the 12 hr span from this morning til now. Trough is just now dropping down from the NE and will have to see how strong it is and how far it gets. As a has been the case all summer they have been unusually strong this summer and think the models will have a better handle on it this weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1177 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:00 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:As soon as jlauderdale gets his generator out and fires it up this thing will either recurve or go poof...the genny is a sure thing!!! :spam: 8-)

might have to go to the well again..lets see what the next model cycles yield..craig setzer local met said he is checking his supplies...if the euro trends toward gfs we have to watch out...if this thing csn get to the surface in the bahamas and the ridge builds back then we have problem...condition 1 is very likely..condition 2 trending toward 50/50
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#1178 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:00 pm

that's a RESEARCH mission, NOT an operationally tasked mission, so the flight pattern is likely different

Plus, its for Sunday
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Re: Re:

#1179 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:01 pm

NDG wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Nice split now as seen by the graphic above :uarrow:


The goto TVCN showing quick recurve in 00z...


Even the TVCN has been trending a little westward during the past couple of runs.

Does the TVCN include the GFS Ensembles (gray thin lines) when making a consensus?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1180 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:02 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:As soon as jlauderdale gets his generator out and fires it up this thing will either recurve or go poof...the genny is a sure thing!!! :spam: 8-)

might have to go to the well again..lets see what the next model cycles yield..craig setzer local met said he is checking his supplies...if the euro trends toward gfs we have to watch out...if this thing csn get to the surface in the bahamas and the ridge builds back then we have problem...condition 1 is very likely..condition 2 trending toward 50/50

i heard him say that 6pm news
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