ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

It might just be my eyes playing tricks on me but it looks like 96L has hit a brick wall at around 69.5W. It's like it slammed on the brakes.

SFT

[deltadog03]

[img][/img]

Its got time to race WNW before getting "caught"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks floridasun78. Awesome Levi video and as usual.

This high over the Gulf South has made it about as hot as is it's been here in NOLA this summer (maybe one or two days were warmer?). I'm looking way up toward you near Ascension Parish, Canada CycloneMike. It's hot baby. Glad to see Levi has the high migrating East which should eventually bring us some SE winds which have been sorely lacking this summer for fisherman. It's been mostly W, WSW and SW winds (alternating with N and NW behind the fronts). Transient or otherwise, this ain't the same pattern we've been in this summer.

Yes sir, supposed to be hot tomorrow and hotter Sunday. Playing golf Sunday at 12:40 and its supposed to be 99 Local nws still calling for trough to dig down east coast and weak back door front dropping into our area early next week. See no reason to not believe it as that has been the theme all summer.

And yes fishing has definitely suffered this summer cause of the pattern. Can't wait for fall and winter, should be good for some trout and reds.

[ozonepete]

It might just be my eyes playing tricks on me but it looks like 96L has hit a brick wall at around 69.5W. It's like it slammed on the brakes.

SFT

No. It's still going west-northwest and maybe turning slightly northwest. I think you're seeing the effects of the center trying to consolidate north of Haiti while some of the convection that got way out in front of it is losing upper level support.

[Alyono]

It might just be my eyes playing tricks on me but it looks like 96L has hit a brick wall at around 69.5W. It's like it slammed on the brakes.

SFT

that is the 35 kts of shear it has run into

[CYCLONE MIKE]

[img][/img]

Its got time to race WNW before getting "caught"

Isn't the high over LA supposed to push off to the west come Monday, thus leaving a pretty substantial break in the two ridges with the trough dropping down. In turn leaving an alleyway for 96 to scoot on out to the NE?

[Blown Away]

Aug/Sept systems passing near 96L's current position... Many legends in this group...

[HurriGuy]

Here is 500mb at hour 72 for GFS 00z. Notice the high pressure over the SE US.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082218/gfs_z500_vort_eus.html

[deltadog03]

Yes, it will, but if "IT" can scoot fast enough its gonna hit something of land nature before lifting out.

[Nimbus]

Look at the outflow from 96L it flows WNW then makes a sharp turn due east.
That to me looks like a high pressure bridging pattern starting to develop.
The 00z UKMET showed a track that dipped SW over Cuba so such a scenario is possible.

[HurriGuy]

If 96L can split the 2 high pressures then you see the recurve. I have not seen much poleward movement today. Seems like mountains holding onto the storm. Bad feeling SE US ridge grabs hold of it.

[HurriGuy]

I am not discounting any model. UKMET been most consistent within its runs. It has happened before.

[hectopascal]

A large cone of error exists on where this system will go early to mid next week. If the system weakens as it interacts with land, a track into the Gulf Of Mexico under the influence of a low level steering ridge is possible. However if it maintains convective depth, it is likely to be trapped by the upper trough across Eastern USA and travel in a north to north-east direction. As of now the split is approximately 25/75 (25% favouring a Gulf Of Mexico solution, 75% favouring the NHC solution.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneTracker2031]

96L looking good and is slowly intensifying.. By Monday, this could be designated.



Listen to my Live Broadcast Forecast for 96L: http://www.spreaker.com/user/7368365/matwf-issue-1_1

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

I am not discounting any model. UKMET been most consistent within its runs. It has happened before.

I'd ask Aric but the latest SpaceX flight out of Mcgregor just self destructed so probably busy watching that..

[gatorcane]

Impressive display of deep convection this evening. The llc is somewhere underneath all that mess:

[stormlover2013]

Still looks messy

[TheStormExpert]

Looks exactly how Bertha looked in this same region earlier this month.

[ozonepete]

[img][/img]

Its got time to race WNW before getting "caught"

Isn't the high over LA supposed to push off to the west come Monday, thus leaving a pretty substantial break in the two ridges with the trough dropping down. In turn leaving an alleyway for 96 to scoot on out to the NE?

Look at my last post. It's split right down the middle right now as to whether the trough picks it up and carries it out to the northeast or it gets left behind and then blocked by a ridge building down the east coast. Each new model run will get a better handle on it.

[ozonepete]

96L looking good and is slowly intensifying.. By Monday, this could be designated.

Think by tomorrow evening at the latest.