ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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jlauderdal
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1181 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:08 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:As soon as jlauderdale gets his generator out and fires it up this thing will either recurve or go poof...the genny is a sure thing!!! :spam: 8-)

might have to go to the well again..lets see what the next model cycles yield..craig setzer local met said he is checking his supplies...if the euro trends toward gfs we have to watch out...if this thing csn get to the surface in the bahamas and the ridge builds back then we have problem...condition 1 is very likely..condition 2 trending toward 50/50

i heard him say that 6pm news

he also put it out on twitter..aug 15th to nov1 is our time so its good publicservice even if this one misses sofla
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1182 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
00z... Getting that flat line feeling a strong ridge look to the W models...

Image
00z...


When I see a split like in where it goes, I consider it low confidence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1183 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:16 pm

Image
GFS Ensembles...
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#1184 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:23 pm

Looks like two separate camps now. Some are blinking...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1185 Postby GTStorm » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
GFS Ensembles...


Taking into account the Savannah Dome of Dull Weather, I'll go with the grouping on the right...

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including Storm2k. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#1186 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:27 pm

Just posted on twitter by Alabama's James Spann. Looks like a couple more west route models not shown on other maps.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1187 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:28 pm

Battle royale between the trough and the high
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#1188 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:43 pm

The 00z GFS run coming out within the next hour should be the tell-tale sign of which camp might actually win over. East or West? I'll go ahead and vote East!
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#1189 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:45 pm

West
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1190 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:47 pm

I'll say east
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Re:

#1191 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:47 pm

floridasun78 wrote:south fl weatherman noticing west shift of Models



Most likely the same one that yesterday said it was no threat and would recurve out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1192 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:53 pm

First time nam has a made a west shift throughout the invest

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... M&ps=model
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1193 Postby hurrtracker79 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:56 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:First time nam has a made a west shift throughout the invest

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... M&ps=model

0Z NAM traps it at 84 hrs. Strong ridge to the north & east. Could head back to coast with that pattern. Never fully connected with the trough.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1194 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:09 pm

18z HWRF ensembles..

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1195 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:18z HWRF ensembles..

http://i60.tinypic.com/2ztek3c.png

someone draw that black line or was already on it?


*edited by sg to remove IMG tags
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1196 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:15 pm

No that's the mean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1197 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:15 pm

It may have been posted already but HWRF of Marie shows invest 96L getting into the middle of Gulf Of Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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#1198 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:17 pm

I think I will stay up late and watch this 00Z GFS run that starts in 15 minutes...
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Re:

#1199 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:I think I will stay up late and watch this 00Z GFS run that starts in 15 minutes...


Grab some popcorn, the show is about to start.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1200 Postby sunnyday » Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:23 pm

So Fl, as well as the rest of the state, has been lucky for about 10 years now. I have a feeling their luck will continue.

Just my opinion. Follow NWS and NHC products.
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