ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[stormlover2013]

About 2 hours for euro, cmc,nogaps, and other models soon

[Evil Jeremy]

When does the euro start running?

About 1:30am if I remember right...

[SeGaBob]

Thanks... I'll probably not stay up for that one.

[NDG]

What should be taken out of this latest 0z GFS run is that it does not go back to its earlier 12z & previous runs' solution of quickly ejecting it out to sea.
Now lets see if the euro joins the GFS, CMC & UKMET.

[gatorcane]

144 hours and the GFS has this really strengthening but manages to keep it just far enough offshore up through the mid-atlantic...995MB

[SFLcane]

Indeed NDG its still west of 12z and 06z.

[blp]

For those that want perspective. Big difference in track in 12hrs.

12zrun


00zrun

[stormlover2013]

Ok model gurus cmc,ukmet,nogaps,fim, post when y'all get please

[gatorcane]

When does the euro start running?

About 1:30am if I remember right...

I won't stay up for that but I still think the ECMWF shows a recurve also, maybe a little more west than the 12Z but not close to Florida. It seems that model doesn't budge much once it latches on to a solution. It has proven it's a bit better than the GFS on forecasting mid-latitude synoptics that steer these systems (ala Sandy) so probably deserves a little more weight here.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok model gurus cmc,ukmet,nogaps,fim, post when y'all get please

They'll all be rolling out, along with the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF, over the next 2 hours. Buckle up.

[blp]

Ok model gurus cmc,ukmet,nogaps,fim, post when y'all get please

Oh don't worry it is coming. Next up is CMC at 1am and Navgem.

[Javlin]

The 00Z run @144 hrs seems to rely on a second cool front to sweep out see with the initial northward movement in the next 48hrs.It would seem if in the next 24-48 hrs it does not move N as projected then a track further W looks likely?

[BobHarlem]

Init position seemed to be just south of the Turks & Caicos islands, not sure how valid that really is. But still, a bit unnerving, at least it trended in the right direction after the 18z.

[blp]

The 00Z run @144 hrs seems to rely on a second cool front to sweep out see with the initial northward movement in the next 48hrs.It would seem if in the next 24-48 hrs it does not move N as projected then a track further W looks likely?

To me I keep seeing 75W as the line if it gets passed that early on it will be too far west to not feel the strong influence of the ridge. The meat of the ridge does not extend out much further than that.

[Bocadude85]

I had a feeling the GFS would shift east. Can't wait to see what the other models show

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like maybe a very quick recurve on Canadian. Moving NNE by hr 54

[sunnyday]

But is any of this accurate with no storm even named yet? Isn't this all guessing more than anything else?

[SFLcane]

I had a feeling the GFS would shift east. Can't wait to see what the other models show

That's not a shift at all...Its way west of its previous runs 06z-12z. Still brings in general direction of fl.

[stormlover2013]

Images

[gatorcane]

Looks like maybe a very quick recurve on Canadian. Moving NNE by hr 54

Yep GEM looks like it is on a quick recurve now like the ECMWF but a bit more west....