ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[jlauderdal]

GFS 06z @ 120h

we seem to be zeroing on somewhere between landfall in miami to the west and points north or a run up the central bahamas to the east, the modeling keeps going back to this ridging idea which makes sense..in two more model cycles of gfs and euro we should be in a much better place for a reasonable solution, especially if they start converging which they will..the whole eastern part of florida is under a threat but at this point it could easily stay offshore and still give the penninsula a scare e.,g floyd sans the major intensity..however, if the forward motion does slow under high ssts then RI is certainly on the table, remember intensity forecasting is trickier than track although this tracking has been the trickiest in a while if nothing else due to its struggle to get going with defined coc.

nhc has to be chomping to get a high altitude mission going asap and also start launching extra balloons downstream to pump more data into the models...look for all of this soon especially if we can get a coc today

[SouthFLTropics]

I agree with each of those statements by jlauderdale and I'd dare say that the recent runs of the GFS will most likely be enough to get the South Florida media hype going. I'd guess that by 5PM today most local media will lead their broadcast with this.

[NDG]

06z HWRF swings back to the right, far right.

[Alyono]

intensifying way too quickly in this HWRF run

[stormlover2013]

I was looking at euro and it again throws another piece of energy towards gom, and shoots it west towards texas so I think if anything gets in gom it's going into central gom

[jlauderdal]

intensifying way too quickly in this HWRF run

yes, too much intensification but we see that often with this model also wild swings...at this point the best bet is wait for the gfs and euro to get in sync ..if the euro comes in line with the gfs today on the ridging idea then florida gets this one or real close call

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS 06z @ 96h

06z has landfall between Dade/Broward..not as strong but it is the GFS. Fl peeps must be all sleeping cause they would have been all over this.. LoL

[boca]

96L seems to be stationary but the gfs again has me concerned

[jlauderdal]

96L seems to be stationary but the gfs again has me concerned

96 is on the move...recon is in there...gfs should have you concerned

[jlauderdal]

GFS 06z @ 96h

06z has landfall between Dade/Broward..not as strong but it is the GFS. Fl peeps must be all sleeping cause they would have been all over this.. LoL

FL peeps run a 24/7 operation, scroll back a few hours

[boca]

It's is moving and I'm half asleep but I think the the 12z GFS will be the one to watch for consistency

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM weaker and with a quick recurve east of the Central Bahamas like the ECMWF and GEM:

[Alyono]

unless the center reforms to the NE, which is quite possible due to the strong shear, a quick recurve will not happen

[gatorcane]

it also appears to be quite a bit weaker.

I do not foresee any rapid intensification. The building upper high to the nrothwest of the system should restrict the outflow. Instead, only gradual intensification appears likely in the Bahamas. Still likely will gt a hurricane out of this. However, it may be more akin to Erin in 1995 vs a major hurricane

Yeah the upper high is to the west, 84 hour upper-level winds from 06Z GFS, saved image:

[jlauderdal]

It's is moving and I'm half asleep but I think the the 12z GFS will be the one to watch for consistency

we need the euro and the gfs to come together

[ronjon]

Seems like the models that keep it weaker the next 48 hrs show a more southern track along the south side of the Bahamas chain and apparently keep it from being pulled north by the trof.

[Bocadude85]

So the GFS is back to a Florida landfall, go figure. I was planning on waking up and seeing that it had swung back east. The NOGAPS and HWRF keep flip flopping so I'm not putting much credit into them.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.

TUE-FRI...
FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER HISPANIOLA. GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LOW PRECIP REGIME AS THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND PLACES CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS DESCENDING WRN
FLANK. SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE AS A DEEP LYR FRONTAL TROF OFF THE
MID ATLC COAST HAS CREATED A COL IN BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50
WIND FIELDS N/NE OF THE BAHAMAS THAT WOULD TEND TO DRAW THE LOW ON A
MORE N/NE TRACK. N/NERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
PULL DRY/STABLE MID LVL AIR INTO THE CWA WITH MID LVL TEMPS WARMING
TO ARND 10C AT H70...AOA -2C AT H50...H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES FALLING
BLO 20PCT. WILL KEEP POPS AOB 30PCT THRU THE WEEK...CONTINUED WARM
WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS IN THE M/U70S.

NOTE: FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SIG
CHANGES.


.MARINE...


SUN-SUN NIGHT...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL LIFT ACRS THE SRN
BAHAMAS...FORCING A LIGHT SRLY BREEZE TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND FRESHEN
TO 10-15KTS THRU LATE AFTN. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 3-5FT OVERNIGHT.

MON-WED...
AS THE LOW PRESSES NWD AND INTERACTS WITH A BROAD HI PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE NE FETCH WILL EXPAND ALL THE WAY TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS...BCMG MODERATE TO FRESH ON MON AND CONTG THRU MIDWEEK.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY WILL PUSH SEAS INTO THE CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY
RANGE BY MON AFTN...CONTG THRU MIDWEEK.

NOTE: FCST WILL HINGE ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE N OF HISPANIOLA AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SIG
CHANGES.



SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

[Weatherboy1]

BAM models have all shifted to the west as of the 12z cycle. GFDL 6z shifted to a SE FL landfall as well. Gotta see if this shift in trend continues through the midday cycle - if so, think more attention will be paid herein SFL. Just my opinion

[Siker]

06Z NAVGEM weaker and with a quick recurve east of the Central Bahamas like the ECMWF and GEM:

That's yesterday's, today's still hits Florida.