ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure is 1002.6 mbs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lowest pressure is 1002.6 mbs.

Wow...With this mess..IMO it gives it a heck of head start when it starts to tighten up and get away from Hisp.

[NDG]

The one thing that the euro has failed in as we get closer in time is with the forecasted building heights over the NE US, a few days ago it was forecasting the trough's axis to be closer to the NE US which over time has been dropping that idea.

[NDG]

96L is getting better organized by the minute, on high resolution zoomed in satellite west to east moving clouds at the surface by the coast of Haiti are becoming more pronounced, that COC at the surface taking shape is still elongated and broad, but I would think that as the system continuous to pull away from Hispaniola it will continue to tighten at the surface.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looking at the WV satellite loop, you can definitely see the trough beginning to dig southward along and off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

If this trend continues, I have to believe the EURO has been right all along this week with depicting the trough being strong enough to capture 96L early next week and take it out to sea away from Florida and hopefully awayoff the U.S. East Coast. The EURO has never waivered in depicting a rather strong trough in each of its runs all week long.

Agree. There is just too much time for the trough to dig down and pull this up and out before reaching florida. The high is not forecast to begin rebuilding over the Atlantic and se us til tuesday.

[Blown Away]

Lowest pressure is 1002.6 mbs.

What are the coordinates of the COC?

[SeGaBob]

This needs more convection around the possible LLC now..

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure is 1002.6 mbs.

What are the coordinates of the COC?

They haven't closed anything yet but the position of that lowest pressure was 2059N 07205W 0026.

[boca]

In my opinion this mess will be pulled into the trough and out to sea missing Florida because the trough is already having an influence on it now.i think the euro is correct on this one, just not enough time for the high to build eastward

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If you watch the loop, it appears a weak LLC is heading W at 20.5N/71.3W...

[tolakram]

You can clearly see low clouds moving to the east in the last few frames. Either a very good illusion or really getting its act together quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[jlauderdal]

[quote="Blown Away"]
another 12 hours of model and real weather trends and the generator is going to be started...we havent seen anything this close in a long time

[wxman57]

You can clearly see low clouds moving to the east in the last few frames. Either a very good illusion or really getting its act together quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Looks like an LLC forming near 20.5N/71.3W in that loop. Only problem is that recon is heading east toward that point now and they're reporting SE winds. Would expect northerly winds if there was a surface circulation forming near 71.3W.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If you watch the loop, it appears a weak LLC is heading W at 20.5N/71.3W...

another 12 hours of model and real weather trends and the generator is going to be started...we havent seen anything this close in a long time

You are a nice guy letting the local mets hype this up a little before you fire up that generator... Living on the edge a little, in past years you didn't wait this long...

[SeGaBob]

I'm leaning towards the Fl landfall but climatology favors the recurve more...

[deltadog03]

LOL, I See we still have a mess on our hands?

[cycloneye]

You can clearly see low clouds moving to the east in the last few frames. Either a very good illusion or really getting its act together quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Looks like an LLC forming near 20.5N/71.3W in that loop. Only problem is that recon is heading east toward that point now and they're reporting SE winds. Would expect northerly winds if there was a surface circulation forming near 71.3W.

And now south winds.

[NDG]

You can clearly see low clouds moving to the east in the last few frames. Either a very good illusion or really getting its act together quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Looks like an LLC forming near 20.5N/71.3W in that loop. Only problem is that recon is heading east toward that point now and they're reporting SE winds. Would expect northerly winds if there was a surface circulation forming near 71.3W.

That might be just an eddy at that longitude rotating around a broader surface circulation, IMO.

[wxman57]

You can clearly see low clouds moving to the east in the last few frames. Either a very good illusion or really getting its act together quickly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=600&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Looks like an LLC forming near 20.5N/71.3W in that loop. Only problem is that recon is heading east toward that point now and they're reporting SE winds. Would expect northerly winds if there was a surface circulation forming near 71.3W.

That might be just an eddy at that longitude rotating around a broader surface circulation, IMO.

Could be...

[perk]

LOL, I See we still have a mess on our hands?

Could the center be over land?