ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Bocadude85
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Re: Re:

#1381 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:59 am

Siker wrote:
gatorcane wrote:06Z NAVGEM weaker and with a quick recurve east of the Central Bahamas like the ECMWF and GEM:

Image


That's yesterday's, today's still hits Florida.


Yea Gator that run is from 6z yesterday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1382 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:06 am

06z NAVGEM into S Fl as 990 mb storm and then moves toward tampa.
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TheStormExpert

#1383 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:23 am

Talk about a ton of uncertainty. :?:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1384 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:24 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:BAM models have all shifted to the west as of the 12z cycle. GFDL 6z shifted to a SE FL landfall as well. Gotta see if this shift in trend continues through the midday cycle - if so, think more attention will be paid herein SFL. Just my opinion

yes, if euro comes to florida then we are real close to a solution
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hectopascal

#1385 Postby hectopascal » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:24 am

Image
Navgem higher resolution. Another system behind.
Last edited by hectopascal on Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1386 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:25 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Talk about a ton of uncertainty. :?:
Image

watch the trend
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1387 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:28 am

Yeah look at the spread of the GFS ensembles - from Mexico to Bermuda, lol.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1388 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:30 am

jlauderdal wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Talk about a ton of uncertainty. :?:
Image

watch the trend

What trend? Each run some models trend East, some trend West. This has to be the worst consistency for an area of interest in some time! :lol:
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#1389 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:33 am

If this ever did get into the GOM, I don't think it will, it would quickly strengthen with that upper pattern.
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#1390 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:36 am

All I have to say about 96L is that it's model inconsistency has given me more headaches and aggravation than the 2013 hurricane season! Lol
:break:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1391 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:39 am

ronjon wrote:06z NAVGEM into S Fl as 990 mb storm and then moves toward tampa.


Yes indeed my bad, I did post the wrong day on the NAVGEM. 06Z NAVGEM into Florida...full loop here:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1392 Postby sunnyday » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:42 am

Two things: Is a 990 mb storm a hurricane or a ts? Also, there is still no TS Cristobal, so how can any of this be accurate?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1393 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:44 am

Image
12z...

Image
12z...
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#1394 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:01 am

Another look at the 06Z NAVGEM and yes, there is something behind this approaching the Leewards...it ends up in the SE Bahamas:

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1395 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:06 am

My 6 hours of sleep are up, and the models continue to flop more than a wet noodle at a 5 year old's pool party.

It's going to be a very long day.
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Re:

#1396 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:07 am

gatorcane wrote:Another look at the 06Z NAVGEM and yes, there is something behind this approaching the Leewards...it ends up in the SE Bahamas:

Image

Image



I hope this scenario is a BAD joke. I hope...
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Re:

#1397 Postby perk » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:09 am

gatorcane wrote:Another look at the 06Z NAVGEM and yes, there is something behind this approaching the Leewards...it ends up in the SE Bahamas:

Image

Image



That track can't be good.
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TheStormExpert

Re: Re:

#1398 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:10 am

WPBWeather wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Another look at the 06Z NAVGEM and yes, there is something behind this approaching the Leewards...it ends up in the SE Bahamas:

http://i61.tinypic.com/21tq10.jpg

http://i61.tinypic.com/25jk10p.jpg



I hope this scenario is a BAD joke. I hope...

I would NEVER trust the NAVGEM(NOGAPS) for anything tropics related. Odds are this setup won't happen.
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WPBWeather
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Re: Re:

#1399 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:15 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
WPBWeather wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Another look at the 06Z NAVGEM and yes, there is something behind this approaching the Leewards...it ends up in the SE Bahamas:

http://i61.tinypic.com/21tq10.jpg

http://i61.tinypic.com/25jk10p.jpg



I hope this scenario is a BAD joke. I hope...

I would NEVER trust the NAVGEM(NOGAPS) for anything tropics related. Odds are this setup won't happen.


Well, when you become the Storm Expert, I'll listen.
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#1400 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:17 am

Look how many GFS Ensembles are over South Florida now:
Image
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