ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

LOL, I See we still have a mess on our hands?

Could the center be over land?

No, doesn't appear so.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I can see the LLC very clearly on that loop. As Tolakram said, either a good illusion, or this thing is beginning to rock and roll.

PS: I can probably do HDOBS for some of this afternoon's mission if needed, will have to see.

[Blown Away]

[deltadog03]

LOL, I See we still have a mess on our hands?

Could the center be over land?

No, doesn't appear so.

Agreed, maybe just off shore. Do you think there is a chance this gets in the FL straits and climbs up FL?

[SeGaBob]

I can see the LLC very clearly on that loop. As Tolakram said, either a good illusion, or this thing is beginning to rock and roll.

PS: I can probably do HDOBS for some of this afternoon's mission if needed, will have to see.

Yes I believe I see it as well... just needs convection around it. Also update your signature to 80/90%

[wxman57]

Agreed, maybe just off shore. Do you think there is a chance this gets in the FL straits and climbs up FL?

There may be a chance of that. Not a big chance at this time. Better chance of it impacting the eastern peninsula.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Agreed, maybe just off shore. Do you think there is a chance this gets in the FL straits and climbs up FL?

There may be a chance of that. Not a big chance at this time. Better chance of it impacting the eastern peninsula.

WXman, where do you think it goes from there? Is there a chance this thing curves back into the east coast somewhere north of FL?

[wxman57]

WXman, where do you think it goes from there? Is there a chance this thing curves back into the east coast somewhere north of FL?

Euro solution indicates a possible stalling and westward movement toward the Carolinas before it heads out to sea. It could impact the Carolinas or just scare them...

[gatorcane]

Yes it does looks like it is gradually organizing...better structure for sure moving WNW with LLC becoming more obvious:

[SeGaBob]

Couldn't this just move into FL and get caught by the trough and move NE through the entire SE US and come off the NC coast?

[cycloneye]

Let's see if this afternoon's plane hits the jackpot and close it.

[ronjon]

Sorry I don't see this organizing now. It's broad and lacking deep convection.

[BobHarlem]

Too much downsloping off Hispaniola, I don't think it develops today. Tomorrow almost a sure bet.

[Blown Away]

Tropical storms passing near where 96L is currently... A few were able to achieve hurricane status before impacting the SE...

[SeGaBob]

Will NHC issue a special TWO saying the aircraft didn't find a well defined circulation?

[AdamFirst]

It has to clear the DR at this juncture. Even though it is structurally well organized the mountains are keeping it at bay.

[HurriGuy]

I don't see this big northwest motion models are hinting at. We are past 70W now and I see majority westward movement

[perk]

Will NHC issue a special TWO saying the aircraft didn't find a well defined circulation?

I think they probably will.

[tropicwatch]

Will NHC issue a special TWO saying the aircraft didn't find a well defined circulation?

I think they probably will.

I don't know they have another mission going before the 2pm TWO.

[SeGaBob]

Just Issued

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

Updated...Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the disturbance located
near Hispaniola continues to lack a well-defined surface
circulation. As a result, advisories are not being initiated at this
time. However, environmental conditions are favorable for the
development of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today
or Sunday. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near
the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas
Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central
Bahamas through Sunday night. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and
Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan