EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

75kts.

EP, 13, 2014082312, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1058W, 75, 983, HU

[CrazyC83]

TXPZ29 KNES 231215
TCSENP

A. 13E (MARIE)

B. 23/1200Z

C. 14.6N

D. 106.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON 1.1 WH BAND. PT=4.0. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

So a possible rapidly intensifying hurricane has less attention than an INVEST in the Atlantic that isn't a TC yet? Atlantic always win in this one...

[Hurricane Andrew]

^INVEST could effect millions of people, this thing, just millions of fish.

[SeGaBob]

So a possible rapidly intensifying hurricane has less attention than an INVEST in the Atlantic that is forecast to not even develop into a TC in the short term?

This is not affecting land so less people are interested in something that won't bother them. Personally I'm interested in this one because of the forecast intensity. Karina and Lowell not so much.

EDIT: Hurricane Andrew beat me to it...

[euro6208]

^INVEST could effect millions of people, this thing, just millions of fish.

[tolakram]

Apparently making a post is a measure of interest?

Remember some people are here to guage impacts of a storm on them, so it's only natural that activity will be higher for a storm that may hit land. If it's obvious 96L will turn out to sea you will see "interest" drop. Not a thing wrong with that.

[cycloneye]

I think there is plenty of interest to see what Marie does intensitywise to see if it reaches the past best hurricanes and if if gets to cat 5.The problem is all the attention is to 96L but you will see things pick up here once the eye clears.

[mrbagyo]

Good morning Marie!!

[Ntxw]

Apparently making a post is a measure of interest?

Remember some people are here to guage impacts of a storm on them, so it's only natural that activity will be higher for a storm that may hit land. If it's obvious 96L will turn out to see you will see "interest" drop. Not a thing wrong with that.

It's that coupled with the casual posters (most from the eastern US, which dominates this board overall) have more interest in their backyard. Even some fish invests that effect no one far in the E Atlantic can carve much more interest than a full blown major EPAC fish. There are some who look at other basins for the meteorological beauty but that's not the majority.

Marie is stellar, still waiting for that eye to finish.

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't do the 'might possibly, could maybe be a storm someday' threads, so I don't know if that one will affect anyone at all.

In the meantime, I'm wondering if this will be big enough and strong enough to affect the coastal areas even if the eye never gets close to them.

[Yellow Evan]

So a possible rapidly intensifying hurricane has less attention than an INVEST in the Atlantic that isn't a TC yet? Atlantic always win in this one...

This topic comes up virtually every EPAC major. Well, as mentioned above, 96L could affect many people and a decent portion of our membership base. This? None. Even if this was a threat to MX, they seem to lack Storm2k posters for some reason.

However, I will like to point out that the EPAC has gotten much more attention than in past years.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Beautiful storm. Very picturesque if you ask me, and it's only must getting started!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since
yesterday at this time. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting
in association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an
appearance. Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend
of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt.
Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly
uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are
likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days.
The GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about
10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over
next three days. However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests
substantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the
symmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid
intensification. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS
statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of
the other guidance. By days four and five, Marie should be passing
over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast
intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus.
This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided
in the previous advisory from 36 hours onward. Unfortunately, no
new size information has been available and the wind radii analysis
and prediction remain about the same.

The initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave
passes recently and no eye being seen yet. However, the available
fixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier
analyzed. The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly
slower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a
deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the
main steering factor for the entire forecast time. The track
guidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and
suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The
official track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous
advisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise
quite close in longitude.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.6N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[euro6208]

Looks like peak intensity went down slightly from 125 to 120 knots, still powerful...

I wouldn't be surprised if this peaks even weaker though...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The only bad thing about Marie is that it will not last long to contemplate the fascinating eye it will have comparing with past ones that lasted much longer like Linda,Rick,Ivan,Wilma etc.

[euro6208]

Yup as always with every EPAC hurricane, peak intensity will be short lived...

Cold waters, shear, or dry air is always the culprit...

Relatively small basin that's why...

[Yellow Evan]

The only bad thing about Marie is that it will not last long to contemplate the fascinating eye it will have comparing with past ones that lasted much longer like Linda,Rick,Ivan,Wilma etc.

Rick ad Linda didn't last too long as majors either. They ERC'd and then collapsed.

[emeraldislenc]

Very impressive storm!!!

[Yellow Evan]

If we don't get an eye soon, I'm starting to question whether we are getting a Cat 5 or even a Cat 4.