Isabel looks HORRIBLE

[Stormchaser16]

I thought for a while that it was cooling off again/deepening however the last few IR frames have been showing a great deal of warming taking place. The deep orange ring around the eye is quickly dissapearing, the eye is losing some shape and the overall shape of the storm is very ragged. Also the outflow pattern looks very disrupted. This appears to be a little more then an eyewall replacement and could be the beginning of Isabel's slow downfall.

[Stormchaser16]

Bump... need thoughts

[TerraMom]

more reliable category, like a 2 or 3 which would follow the models and more importantly not be a dangerous

[Raebie]

What IR are you looking at? The one on NHC shows none of that...

[Stormchaser16]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormsfury]

Stormchaser, this is an annular hurricane and despite if the appearance is becoming a little more ragged, the RECON findings aren't suggesting anything but at least a steady hold in strength ... actually RECON found the pressure down 6 mb to 933 mb.

SF

RECON

166
URNT12 KNHC 141911
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1911Z
B. 24 DEG 00 MIN N
67 DEG 08 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2510 M
D. 85 KT
E. 304 DEG 50 NM
F. 031 DEG 122 KT
G. 304 DEG 050 NM
H. 933 MB
I. 13 C/ 3045 M
J. 20 C/ 3041 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C45
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF963 0713A ISABEL OB 15
MAX FL WIND 150 KT NE QUAD 1735Z.

;

[southerngale]

I definitely would not call that HORRIBLE.

TS Grace looked horrible....but she did bring me a ton of rain.

[Raebie]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Mental note: the refresh button is your friend...

[mf_dolphin]

I don't share your opinion on Isabel. LOL While the cloud tops have been colder it's still a very symetrical storm. The huge eye is embedded directly in the center of the convection. Pretty classic looking hurricane to me.

[Stormchaser16]

I did use the refresh button lol...... yea i keep forgetting this annular hurricane bit, satelite pics can sometimes be deceiving in these cases. But i still dont think it looks too great.

[vbhoutex]

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT????????

I just took a look at three different IR loops and see nothing but a still beautifully formed Hurricane with excellent outflow in all quadrants and a nearly perfect round eye, which is still, unfortunately moving darn near due west. If you are talking about the feathering around the edges of the hurricane that is totally normal and not indicative of any type of weakening.

I would be interested to see what you are talking about. Please post some links! I used the links in our Weathercentral section.

[Raebie]

*I* didn't...hehehe.

Looks like she met up with a tad bit of resistence to her west, which is disapaiting.

But then what the heck do I know?

[Stormsfury]

RECON already indicating the NW turn is about to commence... Between fixes, Isabel has moved 310º ...

SF

[JetMaxx]

It's an extremely dangerous hurricane....the eye is perfectly formed...and borderline cat 4/5....based on 150 kts at flight level, surface winds are 130-140 kt (150-160 mph...gusting to 190+).