ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[gatorcane]

Another look at the 06Z GFS Ensemble tracks, majority now over the FL peninsula which you can't see on this graphic since so many ensembles are over it!

[TheStormExpert]

Look how many GFS Ensembles are over South Florida now:

Sorry to go off topic, but is that area on the west coast of Africa what several models are showing after 96L?

[TheStormExpert]

I hope this scenario is a BAD joke. I hope...

I would NEVER trust the NAVGEM(NOGAPS) for anything tropics related. Odds are this setup won't happen.

Well, when you become the Storm Expert, I'll listen.

This is JUST MY OPINION. Anything could happen, but that model does not have a real good record.

[jlauderdal]

Another look at the 06Z NAVGEM and yes, there is something behind this approaching the Leewards...it ends up in the SE Bahamas:

[img ]http://i61.tinypic.com/21tq10.jpg[/img]

[img ]http://i61.tinypic.com/25jk10p.jpg[/img]

its the put up the shutters and leave them up scenario....its 1999 +- a year that was actually the case, they went up and stayed up...maybe it was for floyd

[jlauderdal]

Talk about a ton of uncertainty.

watch the trend

What trend? Each run some models trend East, some trend West. This has to be the worst consistency for an area of interest in some time!

the most recent trend is coming west and now the gfs models have completely covered south florida...i cant stress enough if we get king euro support then we really have to start preparing

[wzrgirl1]

the most recent trend is coming west and now the gfs models have completely covered south florida...i cant stress enough if we get king euro support then we really have to start preparing

I'm not waiting. Wal Mart is dead right now. Got my water.

[Nimbus]

Track should be clearer by the time it reaches Acklin island.

[sunnyday]

What are the odds are getting euro support?

[Bocadude85]

What are the odds are getting euro support?

I really don't see the Euro changing it tune, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 12z will once again show a recurve. It's the only model that hasn't been flip flopping.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What are the odds are getting euro support?

I really don't see the Euro changing it tune, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the 12z will once again show a recurve.

I agree, but predict it will show an even slower storm in the Bahamas.

[SeGaBob]

What are the odds are getting euro support?

If I had to guess I would say about a 10-15% chance but that's just my opinion. If it does choose to support the GFS it will take a few runs instead of a big change in one run.

[Hurricane Andrew]

LOL, silly NAM. Tales it nearly straight N/NNE from where it is, then turns it back to the NW,



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[JPmia]

Interesting point by Levi Cowan@tropicaltidbits: "Recon found wave axis near 72.5W, 20.5N. Keep in mind models insist NW or NNW motion after 70W. pic.twitter.com/h36prI7KR4"

[tolakram]

For those mentioning the Euro consistency, it has moved significantly west in the last run, the question is will it continue with the west trend?

[emeraldislenc]

Which models are showing a threat to North Carolina?

[srva80]

Hello, New poster from So Fl (Delray Beach).. Been following for a few years now

If the Euro shifts west again this afternoon.. Do you think its time to hit walmart up before the media hype begins this evening? If so, what do you recommend.. water, can goods, lots of beer, etc? This would be my first storm. What kind of timeframe is possible for power outages and sort?

Thanks for any input

[euro6208]

Hello, New poster from So Fl (Delray Beach).. Been following for a few years now

If the Euro shifts west again this afternoon.. Do you think its time to hit walmart up before the media hype begins this evening? If so, what do you recommend.. water, can goods, lots of beer, etc? This would be my first storm. What kind of timeframe is possible for power outages and sort?

Thanks for any input

Welcome to storm2k!

yes water and lots and lots of spam...

[megsy]

Hello, New poster from So Fl (Delray Beach).. Been following for a few years now

If the Euro shifts west again this afternoon.. Do you think its time to hit walmart up before the media hype begins this evening? If so, what do you recommend.. water, can goods, lots of beer, etc? This would be my first storm. What kind of timeframe is possible for power outages and sort?

Thanks for any input

It's always good to be prepared, storm in sight or not. There are tons of resources available with lists of recommendations.

[Ptarmigan]

The models are trending west because the longer it takes to develop, the less influence by upper air patterns compared to a tropical storm or hurricane.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS Initialized