ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#1021 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:26 am

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I think that throughout the day it will organize, and it will be classified sometime tonight.
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#1022 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:27 am

New GFS closes it off by six hours, we gotta be close now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1023 Postby Recurve » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:28 am

Swampdude, I'm sure there's been this many pages when there's a disturbance in that area -- we do have a southeast coastal bias just by number of members I bet.

Just tuning in to 96L today and seeing some interesting stuff with the models and sat images. The Navy loop of the Navgem is a bit of a downer, but then it's not a model that makes the bacon for tropical systems. From the discussion in the models thread, I gather than a recurve is predicted from the Euro so far, but watching for a westward shift. Potential ridge strength and trough timing/intensity are always the key at this point, wonder what you all are seeing with regard to steering pattern forecast.

Sat presentation does look like she's on the doorstep to getting a closed center. Bahamas have to be finishing preps for a strong TS, and Florida may have to be on guard for a prep day tomorrow. Will be checking supplies today.

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#1024 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:45 am

i am going look my supply dont want any supprise here in miami fl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1025 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:55 am

Dr Jeff Masters discussion.The last sentence says it all.

There’s been little change overnight in 96L, with RECON reports indicating a broad, disorganized circulation center with a surface pressure near 1007mb along the north coast of Hispaniola near 20.8N/71.7W. Mid-upper level winds also indicate that the larger scale circulation field was not significantly impacted by the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and has been moving on a generally West/West-Northwest course at around 20Kts, though a somewhat more Northwesterly (310°) heading seems to have developed over the last few hours. Although there continues to be large scale outflow associated with the high level anti-cyclone sitting atop the developing system,, there are no distinct outflow channel jets; so any initial intensification of the system later today or on Sunday will likely start out on the slow side. While wind shear of 15-20Kts continues to be of moderate intensity across large areas of the system’s structure, an area of lighter shear (<10Kts) close to the circulation center continues to move in tandem with the systems primary circulatory vortex.

The overall satellite signature continues to slowly improve, with a somewhat more symmetrical appearance, and large scale curvature especially noteworthy in the E-SE quadrant where hints of a ‘feeder’ band type structure appears to be developing.

With the system embedded in a moist environment and no significantly drier air noted on the periphery of the system, dry air should not be a hindrance to intensification during the next 48 hours. In addition, the developing system is, or soon will be, moving over very warm waters, with SST’s over 29°C (~85°F) – well above that needed to support hurricane intensities. However, if the system should slow to a crawl or even go stationary later Sunday as forecast by many models, upwelling of cooler sub-surface waters could prove significant, slowing the rate of intensification appreciably.

Since yesterday, there have been major shifts to the forecast tracks – especially after Sunday – raising the risk level for the entire eastern US from Florida to New England – with about equal odds that the potential storm will impact the coast or turn out to sea. This is not a surprise since track and intensity forecasts are notorious for major shifts for systems that are still in the formative stages. Ironically, the CMC forecast, which was consistently forecasting the system to track across south Florida, has now shifted dramatically to that shown by many of the major model suites, while the more reliable track forecast models have now shifted westward, much closer to the coast. The spread of forecast tracks is now quite large – again, a typical feature of forecasts for systems still forming. The forecast challenge has been unusually high for this system, not just because it has yet to really develop and has tracked across Hispaniola (a landmass notorious for ‘destroying’ even the most well developed and intense hurricanes) but because of the unusually high track sensitivity to a ‘weakness’ in the east-west sub-tropical ridgeline that extends from the central Atlantic to the Gulf coast. While the models continue to show a break between the high pressure center in the central Atlantic and the one near the Gulf coast during the next 36 hours, the resulting TROF within this break will be relatively weak, and will begin to dissipate staring late Monday. The exact timing of this ‘break’ – and the exact location and strength of 96L during the next 72 hours will determine exactly where and when (if ?) the system turns northward. Prior model runs were in generally good agreement that the system would turn northward when it was still about 300NM east of Florida, while the most recent model runs show a far more gradual recurvature – with some of the more reliable models showing the storm getting very close to the coast before beginning to turn northward, and are all calling for the storm to be moving much slower, with the system not expected to be near the US coast for another 4 or even 5 days.

The intensity forecasts are equally difficult, although they have continued to be quite consistent with each other and between succeeding model runs. The odds are relatively high (70%-80%) the system will become a tropical storm either late today or on Sunday, with a fairly slow rate of intensification to near CAT 1 intensity on Monday or Tuesday. This continues to be a reasonably good forecast scenario all things considered, and a CAT 1 intensity threat for the east coast of Florida northward to the Carolinas is quite real – albeit a still very uncertain one.

All things considered, I must admit this is one of the more ‘challenging’ forecasts I’ve come across in my many decades of forecasting.
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#1026 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:00 am

According to this sat loop, a small convective burst just begin very close or above the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1027 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:02 am

cycloneye wrote:Dr Jeff Masters discussion.

[snip...]
All things considered, I must admit this is one of the more ‘challenging’ forecasts I’ve come across in my many decades of forecasting.


Just for the record, Dr. Masters is away, and the post at his blog today is by Steve Gregory.
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Re:

#1028 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:03 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:According to this sat loop, a small convective burst just begin very close or above the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30


I was just looking at that:

Image
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#1029 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:03 am

dont think so, it should have fired much more by now if this were a real convective burst
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Re:

#1030 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:10 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:According to this sat loop, a small convective burst just begin very close or above the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30


Noticed that as well. If it holds, this could be what gets everything going in the lower levels.
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#1031 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:25 am

What do you guys think NHC will do at 2pm? I say they go 90/90.
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#1032 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:25 am

Center is still broad, convection is vigorous, not over the center but all around to the N, E, and SE. Invest has a lot of spin as well. It just has the "look" it is on it's way to becoming a T.S...you got to think the convection will flare up around the LLC soon enough and Cristobal will be borne. Still a bit of a process though since the circulation is broad and proximity to Hispaniola. It's a very large invest also...

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#1033 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:29 am

The actual LLC is a little north of that little convective burst meaning upper level winds are from the north now..
Could be just a temporary eddy but it has the look.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1034 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:49 am

In my opinion it is showing signs of getting pulled into recurve.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1035 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:49 am

where the heck is there a LLC? I am having the hardest time picking it out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1036 Postby srva80 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:49 am

Sanibel wrote:In my opinion it is showing signs of getting pulled into recurve.


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How so?
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#1037 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:50 am

I still see a w/wnw movement overall I believe
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1038 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:53 am

Sanibel wrote:In my opinion it is showing signs of getting pulled into recurve.


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That is all fine and dandy but you are going to make this statement of showing signs of recurving without explaining?

lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1039 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:03 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1040 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:08 pm

The center of the circulation looks clear to me but at the same time it appears very broad. Not sure it has worked its way down to the surface yet. If the SW portion of this system pops convection then it will be firing in all 4 quadrants and we should get takeoff. It has the look for sure but I think it may be fighting some dry air.

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