ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[TonyWeatherMan]

I agree, you gotta think that so long as this thing struggles it will just go ahead and enter the GOM is that a logical theory? It just doesnt appear to want to get it's act together and the models don't seem to be showing that very well at all...

[SFLcane]

David 79 type track

[tolakram]

126h

[SFLcane]

Another thing models keep calling for intensification in the Bahamas.

[tolakram]

141h

[TonyWeatherMan]

Another thing models keep calling for intensification in the Bahamas.

Seems plausible, but I am starting to consider 96L may continue to struggle. Plenty of times have I seen a storm almost inexplicably struggle in a favorable upper level pattern. Models to my knowledge actually tend to flip flop as far as how strong it will become in that area. I am inclined to believe weaker= west. This is always how I have felt watching TCs. The weaker it stays, the more west it will go and lastly, the more likely it will hit SFL.

[TheStormExpert]

David 79 type track

Looks east of David's track about 50 miles or so to me.

[gatorcane]

How is the GFS moving it slowly north with that ridge to the north centered over the Carolinas. Looks a little suspect?

[tolakram]

159h

[TonyWeatherMan]

How is the GFS moving it slowly north with that ridge to the north centered over the Carolinas. Looks a little suspect?

I just got done looking at that. Looks like a carbon copy of the last cycle, and it does indeed look very suspect. IMO, this goes well East of well West of this forecast, but it's not going to do this. GFS will likely swing back to a SFL hit and into the GOM briefly next model run.


However so long as it struggles to get together, stays weak, and continues to move at it's current pace you can throw this GFS run out. Those differences are enough to totally change the track IMO.

[tolakram]

174h

[Hurricane Andrew]

It should have strengthened in the Bahamas on that run. Why didn't it?

[TheStormExpert]

How is the GFS moving it slowly north with that ridge to the north centered over the Carolinas. Looks a little suspect?

Is it possible that the GFS is breaking down the ridge a little too much like it has in the past?

[Alyono]

the environment is only expected to be MARGINAL in the Bahamas

I have no clue where a very favorable environment came from here. Models have not showed that for about 36 hours

[TonyWeatherMan]

the environment is only expected to be MARGINAL in the Bahamas

I have no clue where a very favorable environment came from here. Models have not showed that for about 36 hours

Precisely my thinking as far as how this storm may progress. So I must ask you Mr. Alyono, assuming that this never gets it's act together much at all, where does it go? Would it not follow the Shallow BAM to an extent and find it's way into the GOM?

[baytownwx]

How is the GFS moving it slowly north with that ridge to the north centered over the Carolinas. Looks a little suspect?

Is it possible that the GFS is breaking down the ridge a little too much like it has in the past?

Was going to say that as well. From years of tracking storms GFS has a tendency to break down ridges too fast, hence a right bias....but will be interesting to see what EURO does since in the past it seems to have a left bias. This system is making me

[Alyono]

GOM while not impossible, is not very likely, even if it does stay weak

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM quick recurve and out to sea.

[TheStormExpert]

It should have strengthened in the Bahamas on that run. Why didn't it?

Looked like it was ever so slightly stronger than in previous runs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think the GFS and Euro are coming into line now..I think we will see another small westward shift in the euro in the early stages between Bahamas and FL..Gonna be close call for FL as a whole.