ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[stormlover2013]

I think it's very likely to go in gom, it's either going to gom or a fish, no way that goes north with high pressure like that

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[gatorcane]

Consensus of Euro and GFS is well east of Florida

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS shows some pretty dry air surrounding 96L in the Bahamas. Dry air entrainment could be another possibility.

[Evil Jeremy]

Consensus of Euro and GFS is well east of Florida

I wouldn't say the new GFS was "well" east of Florida at all, not far from the coast, and we haven't seen the new Euro yet.

[SFLcane]

Consensus of Euro and GFS is well east of Florida

This is not true.. European could trend futher w later. GFS still west with no sharp recurve.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z HWRF rolling, stalling around 25N 75W from 36-48 hours. A smidge west of the previous run.

[Nimbus]

I'll wait to see which side of Acklins island it passes its too close to call right now.
Outflow from 96L is not being shunted east and southeast like it was earlier.
Looks like there could be a slowdown in forward motion over the Bahamas not good.

[artist]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109232
Welcome and I remember the feeling! In 2004 we received our first and second within 2 weeks of each other. We were much better prepared for the second. The link I am giving you has lots of helpful information, from what supplies you need to knowing what the cone actually means, put together by members here that have been there done that. If you have any other questions, be sure to ask. That is what is great about s2k, almost everyone is here to help each other.

Hello, New poster from So Fl (Delray Beach).. Been following for a few years now

If the Euro shifts west again this afternoon.. Do you think its time to hit walmart up before the media hype begins this evening? If so, what do you recommend.. water, can goods, lots of beer, etc? This would be my first storm. What kind of timeframe is possible for power outages and sort?

Thanks for any input

[Senobia]

I think it's very likely to go in gom, it's either going to gom or a fish, no way that goes north with high pressure like that

I realize you live in SETX, but there has been nothing - not a thing - in these models that I've seen to suggest the GOM on any run. You keep referencing that in every post you make with no data to back up the suggestion. If you have some, please post it because the rest of us down here would appreciate seeing what you seem to 'know'.

[Dean4Storms]

These models are not good at predicting the time of cyclogenesis so I think this forms further West dealing with these islands. Could very well get driven over extreme south FL into the Gulf.

[srva80]

What time does the Euro run?

[gatorcane]

Consensus of Euro and GFS is well east of Florida

I wouldn't say the new GFS was "well" east of Florida at all, not far from the coast, and we haven't seen the new Euro yet.

If you average out the current GFS and Euro track, it would be far enough east of Florida not to be much of an issue.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM into South Florida but not super strong, ramps up in the Eastern Gulf towards the big bend:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Consensus of Euro and GFS is well east of Florida

I wouldn't say the new GFS was "well" east of Florida at all, not far from the coast, and we haven't seen the new Euro yet.

If you average out the current GFS and Euro track, it would be far enough east of Florida not to be much of an issue.

I will wait for this afternoons run of the Euro, if it swings west, then it most likely will be a SFLA storm.

[tolakram]

from WeatherBell:

NCEP GFS: (4x daily) - 11:22 | 5:22 AM/PM -- 90 mins from start to finish for graphics
NCEP NAM: (12-kilometer 4-times daily) -- 10:00 | 4:00 AM/PM -- Inner 4-km Nest 15-mins later
NCEP GEFS: Ensembles (4-times daily) -- 12:45 | 6:45 AM/PM -- 60 mins to finish
Environment Canada Deterministic (2-times daily) -- 12:05 AM/PM -- 60 mins to finish
European Center 10-day HRES (ECMWF) (2-times daily) -- 1:45 AM/PM -- 75 mins to finish European Center 15-day Ensemble (ECMWF-EPS) (2-times daily) -- 3:45 AM/PM -- 75 mins to finish

[bamajammer4eva]

I think it's very likely to go in gom, it's either going to gom or a fish, no way that goes north with high pressure like that

I realize you live in SETX, but there has been nothing - not a thing - in these models that I've seen to suggest the GOM on any run. You keep referencing that in every post you make with no data to back up the suggestion. If you have some, please post it because the rest of us down here would appreciate seeing what you seem to 'know'.

Weather channel says it's a 'non zero' chance of making it to the gulf. When the NWS says non-zero chance of tornadoes/severe weather, it usually does not happen and then they go on to say only East Coast residents should watch it. Seems highly doubtful that this enters the Gulf.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... o-20140820

A crucial player in determining if the U.S. will be impacted appears to be a southward dip in the jet stream expected to carve out over the western Atlantic Ocean. There appear to still be three scenarios at this time:

1) Avoiding the U.S.: If the system tracks farther north in the Caribbean, and the jet stream dip is sufficiently strong and penetrates far enough south, the system may turn sharply north, then northeast after leaving the southeast Bahamas. In this scenario, the U.S. coast would be missed -- except for perhaps some high surf next week.

2) East Coast threat: If the system either isn't pulled far enough north by the jet stream dip or the jet stream dip passes by into the north Atlantic, it may track much closer to at least part of the East Coast next week.

3) Gulf of Mexico: The system may continue toward the west-northwest, then head into the eastern Gulf of Mexico where it would strengthen. For now, this scenario appears to have a low, but not zero probability.

Forecast uncertainty is typically very high several days out even in cases of a well-defined tropical cyclone, which we don't have yet. Therefore, we cannot take either of these scenarios completely off the table yet.

All interests along the East Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Check back with us at The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on this potential threat.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z NAVGEM into South Florida but not super strong, ramps up in the Eastern Gulf towards the big bend:

That looks more like Appalachicola and the Panhandle than the Big Bend.

[stormlover2013]

Gotta look at the high pressure and etc, some ensemble models do, and some of the models did yesterday

[Dean4Storms]

Bamajamma4eva......in this situation it is possible it gets into the eastern Gulf at this point. Very unwise to say zero chance with this synoptic setup.

[stormlover2013]

High pressure real be strong, bastardi ssix yesterday the set up for next week is primed for a storm with how the set up is