ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Yeap, I think that weak LLC found just south of the Turks & Caicos should be enough to start advisories in a couple of hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like our suspect area...

[toad strangler]

Yeap, I think that weak LLC found just south of the Turks & Caicos should be enough to start advisories in a couple of hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like our suspect area...

hmmm, seems to be a true NW component then it does WNW. Also, I saw it noted that this area where the possible LLC is setting up is in the same area that the OTS model suite has the LLC initializing.

^^ This is just an opinion ^^ …. relax

[NDG]

The trend with the European is that it keeps trending westward little by little and it could get very interesting if not for FL for the Carolinas.

[ronjon]

For those wondering about development, 96L isn't going to go anywhere in a hurry the next 3 days. I am sure by then it will develop a convective core and deepen into cyclone. It's just not gonna happen today.

[NDG]

Yeap, I think that weak LLC found just south of the Turks & Caicos should be enough to start advisories in a couple of hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Looks like our suspect area...

hmmm, seems to be a true NW component then it does WNW. Also, I saw it noted that this area where the possible LLC is setting up is in the same area that the OTS model suite has the LLC initializing.

Earlier they spotted a broad circulation and that's what they were tracking, the LLC has been rotating around the broad surface circulation but is now taking over, not that all the sudden is heading north. The system as a whole is still moving WNW to NW.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Forecast Track for 96L: http://goo.gl/sWRqT9

The evening post will be out later today.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[abajan]

also, I am not seeing any TS winds any longer. Makes sense since this has slowed down

Please elaborate because I keep getting conflicting information about whether a cyclone's forward speed is factored into the calculation of its maximum sustained winds. In other words, let's say there's a stationary tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph in all quadrants. Due to relativity, if that system moves to the northwest at 10 mph, does that mean that it now has sustained winds of 50 mph (40 + 10) in its northeast quadrant and only 30 mph (40 - 10) in its southwestern quadrant? Or were you talking about something completely different?

[cycloneye]

There is the LLC.West winds found again on second pass.

[jinftl]

$64k question - when NHC initiates advisories if we do in fact have a TD later today - is any area of SE Florida or East Central Florida in the 5-day cone? Queue South Florida media headlines if so.

[Bocadude85]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 231844
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE ON-GOING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND STILL DOES NOT
EXHIBIT A CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. A LATE MORNING ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED NO SIGN OF A CIRCULATION. AS OF
200 PM THIS AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS NOT
CONSIDERING ISSUING ADVISORIES BUT STILL EXPECTED OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS...THEIR ENSEMBLES AND ADDITIONAL SUITE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IN A GRADUAL NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT POINT IS WHERE THE REAL
UNCERTAINTY LIES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISTURBANCE COULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OR THE DISTURBANCE COULD CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK
IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE MORE DOMINANT FACTOR. SO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTRIBUTE...AMONGST OTHER FACTORS...TO THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.

AS FAR AS IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA...OBVIOUSLY THE PRESENT
UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS ALL THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SO FAR THE IMPACTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH THAT THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES. THROUGH MONDAY THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
DUE TO EXPECTED WEATHER ARE ALSO HARD TO ASSESS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST BUT SEVERE WEATHER SO FAR IS
NOT EXPECTED. ANY ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS AFTER MONDAY ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER
FORECAST CONSENSUS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS.


&&

Good discussion by NWS Miami

[SeGaBob]

So now we have a LLC but will there be enough convection to designate this TD4/TS Cristobal?

[toad strangler]

$64k question - when NHC initiates advisories if we do in fact have a TD later today - is any area of SE Florida or East Central Florida in the 5-day cone? Queue South Florida media headlines if so.

As I mentioned earlier, the cone has been so accurate for a long time now even as it has been shrinking. So much so, that if an area is left outside the cone, turn the lights out and leave the room.

[cycloneye]

So now we have a LLC but will there be enough convection to designate this TD3/TS Cristobal?

If they upgrade at 5 PM it would be a TD as no TS force winds have been found so far but that could change if they begin to find those.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think that some part of the Florida coast will be in the cone just based on the most likely forecast track and the width of the margin of error for the cone. If I had to guess the track will show a meandering through the Bahamas with a slow drift north.

[Steve]

Might as well hit that early morning line call to get something out there. Early this week I had it within 150 miles of either side of Florida 8 or so days out, and i think it will hit that mark. Although it was (and still is) difficult to tell whether it would be Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico or Florida itself. That's consistent with what I laid out in the Thoughts on the Rest of the Season thread (page 2 I believe).

Gonna go ahead and guess the cmc is wrong with the quick out. What I think will happen is a general move toward and into the Bahamian Kingdom. It's liable to still be around that vicinity by at least Wed AM. I think it makes a run for SE FL but probably stays 50-75 miles offshore. Looking at maybe a middle-high end tropical storm up to a Cat 1 at that point. cristobol by then, moves slowly off N-NNE until it gets a little SSE of the OBX and sort of hooks back toward Wilmington and the Southern Islands of the OBX. I think that the storm will be fairly large at that point and should be able to intensify to at least Cat 2 status somewhere east of the latitudes of the GA and SC Coasts. I think it will stay offshore of NC as well. Effects look the worst for the Kingdom with several days of squalls, winds and beach erosion for Eastern Florida. Could be localized flooding from rain and tides (water piling up for a few days will enhance tidal surges further). As is usually the case with a storm in that area, expect most of the gales to be offshore, but tropical storm conditions and some higher gusts should be felt at least in some coastal FL communities. I think it's mostly wind and waves for the GA and SC Coasts. OBX sees some tropical storm conditions.

Obviously this is an opinion 4-7 days out, and there are plenty of other possibilities. In order of what I think would be most likely would be a very close brush on Dade and Broward Counties; recurve out to sea; leaving behind a piece of energy or peeling off some into the trough off the East Coast; getting into the Gulf (which would probably be the extreme SE Gulf near the Keys; dissapation.

This is NOT an official forecast and is the sole expressed current opinion of the poster only. Please utilize official sources for any decisions involving life or property.

[Hammy]

Still looks very broad if you look at cloud motion in RGB satellite, the swirl is very likely a mesovortex with a broader circulation to the southwest.

[tolakram]

$64k question - when NHC initiates advisories if we do in fact have a TD later today - is any area of SE Florida or East Central Florida in the 5-day cone? Queue South Florida media headlines if so.

As I mentioned earlier, the cone has been so accurate for a long time now even as it has been shrinking. So much so, that if an area is left outside the cone, turn the lights out and leave the room.

That is usually true, but when the steering is complex sometimes things go horribly wrong.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml

[Rail Dawg]

That is usually true, but when the steering is complex sometimes things go horribly wrong.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml

What a great graphic!

Chuck

[toad strangler]

$64k question - when NHC initiates advisories if we do in fact have a TD later today - is any area of SE Florida or East Central Florida in the 5-day cone? Queue South Florida media headlines if so.

As I mentioned earlier, the cone has been so accurate for a long time now even as it has been shrinking. So much so, that if an area is left outside the cone, turn the lights out and leave the room.

That is usually true, but when the steering is complex sometimes things go horribly wrong.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al04/loop_5W.shtml

LOL! owned.

[tolakram]

LOL! owned.

What was interesting about Debby is that they went with the Euro, to the best of my recollection, and it had a rare failure while the GFS picked out the right turn.

Yep, found the writeup.

Early track guidance indicated a dichotomy in the model forecast
tracks, with almost as many model solutions taking Debby toward the Texas coast as solutions
showing a northeastward track toward north Florida. The European Centre for Medium-Range
Forecasting (EMXI) model and its ensemble members largely favored a track toward Texas
(Figure 6), while the GFS and a majority of GFS ensemble members were directed toward
northern Florida and the western Atlantic (Fig. 7). Early official forecasts placed more weight
on ECMWF model solutions, partially because of the superior performance of this model during
the last few years. In addition, a significant number of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
solutions suggested a similar track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2012atlan.shtml

That's good entertainment but I am not suggesting for a moment that this situation is similar.