ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

I can't remember the last time the models were this different in such a short time frame (5 days or less) forecast. They have been all over the place. They are having a very hard time getting a hold of the ridge vs trough setup.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS and GFDL shifted a bit east but are still close to Florida, and CMC is now the Eastern outlier. Everything else moved a bit west.

[tolakram]

144h

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

I can't remember the last time the models were this different in such a short time frame (5 days or less) forecast. They have been all over the place. They are having a very hard time getting a hold of the ridge vs trough setup.

not unusual when we dont have a coc

[tolakram]

Overall I would say the euro trended east, with a slight delay in the right turn. Based on this model resolution and times it appears less of a thread to NC.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't remember the last time the models were this different in such a short time frame (5 days or less) forecast. They have been all over the place. They are having a very hard time getting a hold of the ridge vs trough setup.

Legends tell of a fellow 96L that caused confusion long ago..... in 2012 (http://flhurricane.com/images/2012/stor ... 3-0855.gif)

Gotta love Debby.

[chaser1]

I respect your opinion and might even agree conceptually that continued development could impart a farther west motion. Where iI disagree is that you think it unreasonable for this system to deepen 1millibars over a 12 hour period? And, if there were even the slightest amount of further organization, you think it unreasonable to deepen a mere 2 millibars further - over the following 12 hours? A 3-MB fall in pressure within a vigorous tropical system, at the peak of the hurricane season over a 24 hours period... barely even qualifies as anything other than slight organization and intensification. Heck, 100 people on a cruise to Nassau could practically "fart", and cause a 1 mb drop in pressure

Sure that's a fair point, but to answer that question i'd counter with after all this time why hasn't it deepened yet? Models have consistently shown deepening and it hasn't happened. I see nothing to suggest otherwise. No LLC has formed, convection doesn't qualify for an upgrade, and marginal conditions ahead of it. Let's face it we are struggling to find the C storm....it's August 23rd.


So in conclusion do I think it's possible? Absolutely.

Well, we will agree on this point for sure. There is no reason to assume that synoptics will improve enough to guarantee that 96L will "absolutely" develop into a tropical storm at any point...however such conditions are forecast to become more favorable in about 24 hours. On the other hand, it would be an entirely incorrect statement to call this a bunk 12Z run on the basis that it may or may not incur a 3 MB drop in pressure over a 24 h

[Bocadude85]

I think the models are slowly coming together on a solution. I'm thinking this moves slowly WNW into the Northwest Bahamas before turning north and then finally NE and out to sea.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think the models are slowly coming together on a solution. I'm thinking this moves slowly WNW into the Northwest Bahamas before turning north and then finally NE and out to sea.

Agreed ..I think it just matters now how close it gets to FL and what if any affects come from it before it exits...Bahamas being soaked is a given.

[chaser1]

Overall I would say the euro trended east, with a slight delay in the right turn. Based on this model resolution and times it appears less of a thread to NC.

Mark, that's absolutely true.... however the updated 12Z part of the forecast through 72 hours would actually tend to show a greater potential risk to South Florida as the near term trend now indicates a perilous stall in the Bahamas where earlier runs had the storm further north.

[TheStormExpert]

In some ways potential track reminds me of Irene from 2011.

[Evil Jeremy]

Overall I would say the euro trended east, with a slight delay in the right turn. Based on this model resolution and times it appears less of a thread to NC.

Mark, that's absolutely true.... however the updated 12Z part of the forecast through 72 hours would actually tend to show a greater potential risk to South Florida as the near term trend now indicates a perilous stall in the Bahamas where earlier runs had the storm further north.

My take away from this (as an amateur) is that in this run, 96L is closer to missing the recurve alltogether, even though it does end up getting caught.

[TheStormExpert]

I still feel like there is too much model inconsistency for me too feel confident of where this May end up going just yet.

[Ptarmigan]

I still feel like there is too much model inconsistency for me too feel confident of where this May end up going just yet.

I agree, especially when the models diverge.

[perk]

Now th


Now that's consistency

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM follows UKMET track thru S FL and eastern GOM.

[SeGaBob]

I imagine when/if NHC initiates advisories on this they will at least mention these models even if their official track is not into the gulf.

[SouthFLTropics]

The ball on a hill analogy has been a very good one. It will hit that fork in road and will go one way or another. A similar analogy would be from Jeff Goldblum in Jurrasic Park when he was explaining the chaos theory with a drop of water on Laura Dern's hand. Chaos theory would be something that the models wouldn't pick up such as slight variations in the atmosphere, etc. this could go either way.

[SFLcane]

track of 12z ukmet