ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Senobia]

I don't know how the steering components compare to this system vs Ike in 2008, but the model plots look similar for him when he was in the vicinity of where this system is now. (Or what happens when projected recurves don't)

http://www.hurricanecity.com/ikemodels.htm

[Kingarabian]

With all this uncertainty, they'll probably have a cone all the way from the Texas/Mexico border to Bermuda lol.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

:uarrow:

With all this uncertainty, they'll probably have a cone all the way from the Texas/Mexico border to Bermuda lol.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

remember the cone doesn't get bigger with greater forecast uncertainty.

[Airboy]

I get the impression this will be a big system in size when/if it's becomes a TS.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow:

With all this uncertainty, they'll probably have a cone all the way from the Texas/Mexico border to Bermuda lol.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

remember the cone doesn't get bigger with greater forecast uncertainty.

With that Debby graphic it was not even a cone for some time. It was a gigantic 360 degree CIRCLE. That was a great graphic but generally this NHC product has been exceptional and getting much more accurate.

[Recurve]

Because the cone is based on speed forecast, it could actually be quite small, regardless of uncertainty (model divergence). It's going to stretch over a much larger area if the forward speed is forecast to take it farther.

[Senobia]

I get the impression this will be a big system in size when/if it's becomes a TS.

I don't think so. There's a lot of land interaction that, IMO, is going to keep it from blowing up much. It's sandwiched between those islands and FL so not a lot of elbow room to grow.

Disclaimer: I could be wrong - and probably am. Listen to pro-mets or the NHC instead of me.

[Recurve]

I get the impression this will be a big system in size when/if it's becomes a TS.

I don't think so. There's a lot of land interaction that, IMO, is going to keep it from blowing up much. It's sandwiched between those islands and FL so not a lot of elbow room to grow.

Disclaimer: I could be wrong - and probably am. Listen to pro-mets or the NHC instead of me.

Good disclaimer for a lot of us speculators...

[Nimbus]

The "mesovortex" that according to the NHC has not made it down to the surface is still spinning over West Caicos island. They will probably upgrade if there is a convective burst over the center during diurnal max. There may be some trochoidal motions that can be averaged out over time. The mid level motion still appears WNW but may slow down soon.

[seahawkjd]

If this does come anywhere near NC, all it needs to do to cause a lot of problems is dump rain. We've had like 20 inches this month and its currently pouring again. A couple of days ago I drove through over a foot of water covering both sides of the highway (there were police guiding traffic so it was safe) just trying to get home.

[Recurve]

Looks like recon has found east and west winds very close to Great Inagua island.
20.76 N 72.93 W

[gatorcane]

Looking better an better...crawling WNW..LLC maybe at 21.5N 72.1W?

[psyclone]

:uarrow:

With all this uncertainty, they'll probably have a cone all the way from the Texas/Mexico border to Bermuda lol.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

remember the cone doesn't get bigger with greater forecast uncertainty.

With that Debby graphic it was not even a cone for some time. It was a gigantic 360 degree CIRCLE. That was a great graphic but generally this NHC product has been exceptional and getting much more accurate.

If forward motion is sufficiently slow it will resemble a circle or an oval since the cone represents the average error and that average error becomes larger with time.

[northjaxpro]

If we see a convective burst where the suspect LLC may be within those coordinates within the next few hours, I think NHC will finally pull the trigger and initiate advisories. My opinion only. This is not an official forecast.

[srva80]

Looking better an better...crawling WNW..LLC maybe at 21.5N 72.1W?

http://i62.tinypic.com/2ag1bit.jpg

Convection beginning to fire in SW quadrant?

[Hammy]

convection to SW is probably resulting from the air moving over Inagua as it's pretty scattered and weak elsewhere around it.

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

Convection on the SW side won't really get going until the circulation is better established, IMO. If you follow the lower level clouds you can see them change direction from east to south to now west or northwest toward the new LLC.

[gatorcane]

Looking better an better...crawling WNW..LLC maybe at 21.5N 72.1W?

http://i62.tinypic.com/2ag1bit.jpg

Convection beginning to fire in SW quadrant?

Maybe. Also the whole blob seems to be growing in size. I think that is because an anticyclone is building on top which would be good for development. SSTs should be on the increase even more now that is entering the SE Bahamas. I think they are in the mid 80s in some spots. I think DMAX tonight is when the fireworks may go off...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

With all this uncertainty, they'll probably have a cone all the way from the Texas/Mexico border to Bermuda lol.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Note that the cone size does not vary at all depending upon forecast confidence. It's the same for all storms, and it's based upon the average error for all storms within the past 5 seasons.

Also note that the NHC just went with TD 4 as per the latest model guidance:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042014) 20140823 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140823 1800 140824 0600 140824 1800 140825 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 72.2W 22.5N 74.3W 23.3N 75.6W 23.4N 76.2W
BAMD 21.5N 72.2W 22.5N 73.6W 23.2N 74.6W 23.3N 75.0W
BAMM 21.5N 72.2W 22.4N 73.8W 23.2N 75.0W 23.4N 75.3W

[srva80]

Looking better an better...crawling WNW..LLC maybe at 21.5N 72.1W?

http://i62.tinypic.com/2ag1bit.jpg

Convection beginning to fire in SW quadrant?

Also, I think someone mentioned about a possible LLC could form under the Convection located S of Hispaniola... is that possible? The Convection has been firing there consistently the last few hours and doesn't appear to be moving very much..

Is it possible the trough picks up the ne portion and "another" llc could form further south?

Just a thought.. probably have no idea what I'm talking about... hear to learn