ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[chaser1]

Oops, sorry Mods. Just realized that question should a been for the "model" forum .

[Kingarabian]

I'm sorry but I'm calling BS on this GFS run. Not saying it won't recurve but I highly doubt the 500 and 850 mb vort maxes will be that far displaced in 3 days. It looks like there is some sort of convective feedback/ positive vorticity advection mess going on between the TC and the trough. Who knows, maybe it will happen, but I doubt it.

Well the GFS is claiming 15kts of shear over hurricane Marie in the EPAC. We don't see any shear over the storm right now. Could be seeing some phantom shear for this system as well.

Also the GFS did something close to this with Marie a few days ago before it formed. You can look at that thread for more information. There maybe a correlation.

[artist]

So I guess Miami is out of the picture?

As of now Miami not in the NHC error cone and the big models, GFS/Euro not moving TD4 to SFL... Gotta keep tuned in...

do remember the cone only represents where they think the center of the storm might track. It does not take into account the size of the storm and hazasdous weather occurs outside its center point, sometimes for many miles either side.

[cycloneye]

Oops, sorry Mods. Just realized that question should a been for the "model" forum .

Moved it here.

[AdamFirst]

I am just curious why in this particular case does it appear that the BAM'S & UK models seem to be discarded?

The BAM models rely on a potential strength of the storm based on the available steering currents - they are not a true dynamic model and are more of a climo model.

[tolakram]

129h

heading east/ne

[Alyono]

BS flag raised again for Model Ucceleni

Trying to shove the system through a 700mb ridge

[TheStormExpert]

BS flag raised again for Model Ucceleni

Trying to shove the system through a 700mb ridge

You talking about the 18z GFS run?

[Alyono]

BS flag raised again for Model Ucceleni

Trying to shove the system through a 700mb ridge

You talking about the 18z GFS run?

GFS = Model Ucceleni

[bamajammer4eva]

From the 12z Euro, looks like 8 of 25 show this in the Gulf in 5 days and 12 show it on or offshore the East Coast.

Mean was also in the Gulf

[Steve]

GFS looks semi legit track wise. It is fairly close to the nhc's track. NHC has it faster and farther north and east than I do, but if it wasn't a typo in the discussion, they said a ridge nosing in from the east would be the later catalyst (say Thursday-ish) to move it northeastward. So apparently they feel like the avenue left by the lifting out trough coupled with the clockwise rotation around the nosing in Atlantic ridge to its Southeast (clearly Cristobol would be north of whatever latitude they anticipate high pressure currently over the Southeastern US linking up with the Atlantic Ridge), gives it the push or squeeze up and out after a few days. It's certainly plausible to me regardless of whether or not it ends up going down like that.

[Alyono]

its not going to plow through a ridge like the GFS has it doing. The EC recurve scenario at least makes sense

[stormlover2013]

I've been saying for a while it's either going to be a fish or it's getting into gom, it's not going north into a ridge like that

[bamajammer4eva]

Saw a map earlier of Euro ensemble mean but this one I think is later on in the Forecast at 120 hrs

[TheStormExpert]

I've been saying for a while it's either going to be a fish or it's getting into gom, it's not going north into a ridge like that

Even Levi consists that it will in no way or shape plow through the ridge over the SE. It's either West or Northeast.

[Steve]

Of course not Alyono. But this run (mslp) hints at what I think it is trying to show. We are talking several days of not getting far but eventually a southerly flow just to the southeast of where it's at before it moves out NE rather than sitting due south of an upper high it can't Get through due to blocking it. Isobars are weaker to the NE than to the west or southeast where it shows ridging late next week. Run is a little different at the upper levels than what it is showing happening at the surface. But as wxman said, it's got 500 vorticity way south of where it has the surface feature. So it can only be saying either of two things - it stays weaker because an upper piece shears off (reverse of what it actually shows I know) or it gets north of the expanding/connecting ridge before it links up. I'm not saying it is right. But that's what I think it is intending to show even though it's only hinting it in the surface run (which was the pictures I was commenting on - 96 and 120. Sorry if I confused that point as again, I was trying to interpret the model's output rather than making a judgment call on the validity of it actually happening.

[Jevo]

18z HWFR +24



18z HWRF +48

[Jevo]

18z HWRF +72



18z HWRF +96

[floridasun78]

it my feeling that we going see models not move to fl or se coast

[Jevo]

18z HWRF +120