ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hectopascal]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 22:14:54 N Lon : 72:46:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1005.8mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.2

Center Temp : -19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -38.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.80 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 23:02:24 N Lon: 72:10:11 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F




Loooking at all data.

[nativefloridian]

Doesn't appear to be moving much at the moment.

[Alyono]

there is an outflow restriction, which will slow intensification, but not much shear over the center

[crimi481]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-bd.html

I am no pro, but it appears the entire N. half of storm will shed itself off to the north.
Leaving the LOW center to move more W. WNW.

[tolakram]

New blowup over the center. I'm having a bit too much fun with all the different color palettes on these loops.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir6.pal&numframes=10

[gatorcane]

Look at the trough digging now in this WV loop....nice exit route setting up for our TD which should keep it east of the U.S.:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

Is it me or does the llc look to be moving more west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

[Blown Away]

Is it me or does the llc look to be moving more west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/swir_lalo-animated.gif

That's weird, sure does look like a LLC moving W... Probably some kind of eddy... Interesting...

[ninel conde]

Look at the trough digging now in this WV loop....nice exit route setting up for our TD which should keep it east of the U.S.:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

you dont see powerful trofs like that in august alot. i think its pretty amazing td4 formed at all.

[Blown Away]

The UKMET and the NAVGEM models build enough ridging north of
the cyclone to steer it across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.


First time the NHC or NWS has even mentioned this option... Seems a recurve was getting more likely...

[ozonepete]

there is an outflow restriction, which will slow intensification, but not much shear over the center

Exactly, Alyono. Shear has dropped but there is some subsidence over the western semicircle which should subside in 24 hours. Look at how upper level divergence is really restricted to the west (dashed lines). This shows the effects of the outflow restriction you referred to.

[bahamaswx]

Restricted outflow to the west should spare most of the Bahamas from flooding rainfall.

[chaser1]

There is not a satellite resolution that exists that could help me pick out a center or attempt to guess forward motion from that "soup" called a tropical depression.

[Hammy]

There is not a satellite resolution that exists that could help me pick out a center or attempt to guess forward motion from that "soup" called a tropical depression.

Rapidscan satellite and banding give me the impression that the center is just northeast of the area between Inagua and the Turks and Caicos islands, and appears to be tightening up and becoming more compact.

[chaser1]

Thanks Hammy... do you have a link for the rapidscan?

[tolakram]

Recon is about to do a center fix.

[chaser1]

...drum roll....... though i'm guessing a crawl to the NW.

[Hammy]

Thanks Hammy... do you have a link for the rapidscan?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html It's the IR1 here, 30 frames; I'm not sure how to copy the full loop link though Ithe loop just has the same link as the main page for me).

Recon is about to do a center fix.

Possible tropical storm winds in SE quad, hopefully they can complete a NE-SW pass prior to the advisory.

[tolakram]

[bahamaswx]

Just north of Mayaguana. Ever so slightly right of track.