ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1701 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:42 pm

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#1702 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:43 pm

0z GFS +54 - Look at that pipeline open right up for TD4

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#1703 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:44 pm

GFS essentially forms one giant trough with TD 4 merging at the bottom of it. It again shows strong vorticity advection from TD 4 reinforcing the trough.

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1704 Postby tgenius » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:46 pm

jinftl wrote:Wonder why the NHC mentions the uncertainty in the forecast track in their 11pm discussion - even going as far as to mention the different track scenarios not reflected in the cone when it is a clear cut, done deal on here?

No one is questioning the consensus of the model runs showing a miss to the U.S. and maybe some of the Bahamas - but models are a tool used to forecast, not the forecast itself.


That is rather odd, when consensus seems to be showing re-curve why implicitly call out UKMET. Odd.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1705 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:46 pm

72h

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1706 Postby Riptide » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:46 pm

It's going to be trapped again, cold front over midwest is almost non-existent and way north into Canada. Getting late in the game for TD4 to follow the first weakness.
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#1707 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:47 pm

Looks like it stalls for about 15 hours so far at +70
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#1708 Postby ninel conde » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:47 pm

i wonder if the model shows td4 just becoming part of the elongated trof?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1709 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:47 pm

How long has it been since the GFS showed a deep system in the Atlantic like the one in the EPAC?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1710 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:49 pm

Could this be why some models are trending SOUTHEAST on the SFWMD model site?
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#1711 Postby ninel conde » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:49 pm

very long time, though the 12z GFS showed td4 becoming a rather powerful cane as it scooted out to sea.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1712 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:50 pm

81h

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Re:

#1713 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:52 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:GFS essentially forms one giant trough with TD 4 merging at the bottom of it. It again shows strong vorticity advection from TD 4 reinforcing the trough.

http://i.imgur.com/btVvKbG.png


This is pretty much the sum of what the GFS is showing this run. An elongated system at the base of a trough. Not that different from Bertha.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1714 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:How long has it been since the GFS showed a deep system in the Atlantic like the one in the EPAC?


About 6 hours ago. Look at the last frame, off of Africa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2014082318&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1715 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:55 pm

93h

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#1716 Postby smw1981 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:55 pm

Wow.. That looks a good bit east of the earlier runs (today)..
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1717 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:00 pm

105h

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1718 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:02 pm

117h

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1719 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:11 pm

144h


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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1720 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:14 pm

The 00z GFS seemed a bit more reasonable w/o sharp crazy turns...
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