EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Wait for the eye to clear out.... T numbers will go through the roof. Looks like a small eye at that. Beautiful storm.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[SouthDadeFish]

Just to give some perspective:



All I can say is wow.

[CrazyC83]

If only it had Recon in there.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm starting to notice the SW banding common in very intense TC's.

[Yellow Evan]

Center fix off

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 15:41:48 N Lon : 109:06:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.4mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.4

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.0 degrees

[supercane4867]

The ADT can't make up its mind lol

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -28.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[Ntxw]

The ADT can't make up its mind lol

It's probably just having a rough time with RI, not settled.

[weathernerdguy]

The ADT can't make up its mind lol

It's probably just having a rough time with RI, not settled.

Such a beauty!

[Yellow Evan]

The ADT can't make up its mind lol

It's probably just having a rough time with RI, not settled.

The earlier center fix that came in 4.4 was off. 7.3 shows that this RI was for real

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 15:45:27 N Lon : 109:18:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 5.1

Center Temp : -68.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.2 degrees

[Ntxw]

Recon, that's what we need . It'll even itself out, T#'s is just having issues with defining the eye. I think we'll wake up to a major.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon, that's what we need . It'll even itself out, T#'s is just having issues with defining the eye. I think we'll wake up to a major.

I just hope a misfix does not cost this system a Cat 5 upgrade.

[supercane4867]

AMSU pass

[Cyclenall]

The earlier center fix that came in 4.4 was off. 7.3 shows that this RI was for real

The eye isn't even cleared out yet and ADT is giving CAT5 numbers, not sure why. When it looks like there is a solid pinhole, ADT does a knee-jerk thinking its looking at Wilma again. I consider smaller eyes than this to be pinhole scene but several frames look like its a real one (not stable...yet). Its finally got the wrapped convection around the eye so good part starts .

[CrazyC83]

24/0600 UTC 16.0N 109.4W T6.0/6.0 MARIE

Now it is serious.

[Ntxw]

24/0600 UTC 16.0N 109.4W T6.0/6.0 MARIE

Now it is serious.

No joke





Don't quote without removing [img] tags

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 15:48:59 N Lon : 109:36:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.4mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -28.2C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.6 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

A blend of everything goes with 106.5 knts, though I'd go with 110 knts personally.

[supercane4867]

TXPZ29 KNES 240627
TCSENP

A. 13E (MARIE)

B. 24/0600Z

C. 16.0N

D. 109.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A PINHOLE LG EYE EMBEDDED
IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 6.0 WITH NO EYE
ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.5 WHILE THE MET IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK