ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[tolakram]

162h, and another emerging off Africa.

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS essentially forms one giant trough with TD 4 merging at the bottom of it. It again shows strong vorticity advection from TD 4 reinforcing the trough.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/btVvKbG.png

Model confused by the convective feedback maybe? NAM showed @42hrs what looked like another low linked to TD4 to the northeast so maybe the same thing.

[Blown Away]

Let's name that emerging system "Recurve"...

[tolakram]

SST's probably won't support a tropical storm, so I think it's done at this point.

[Alyono]

the thing off africa will simply not happen. GFS pulls that several times a year and it never comes to pass

[cycloneye]

Let's name that emerging system "Recurve"...

That one is to discuss at the Global Models Discussion thread.

[WeatherEmperor]

When they become available, can somebody post the 00z navgem and ukmet?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[tolakram]

NAVGEM, 78h

[tolakram]

CMC, why worry about a ridge?

96h, basically NE from the central Bahamas with a few pauses here and there.

[tolakram]

NAVGEM 120h, turns east

[bamajammer4eva]

historical model showing tracks of storms where TD4 is right now. Only one recurve--looking like this MAY make a second recurve.

[Riptide]

Let us not forget Jeanne (2004), this region is a climatological zone for US impacts. It could recurve even further out than Jeanne and come back.

Depends on how much westward progress TD4 observes and the North Atlantic 500mb setup.

[USTropics]

All but 2 (AP07/AP12)of the GFS Ensemble members showing recurve from the 0z run. AP07 and AP12 also have the furthest SW initialization points of the 20 members.

[Ntxw]

Let us not forget Jeanne (2004), this region is a climatological zone for US impacts. It could recurve even further out than Jeanne and come back.

Depends on how much westward progress TD4 observes and the North Atlantic 500mb setup.

The 500mb pattern for Jeanne was different. To get a complete west movement to the coast you will need a completely opposite weather pattern with 5h ridge above the storm instead of trough. None of the guidance is showing that kind of weather pattern.

[bamajammer4eva]

Let us not forget Jeanne (2004), this region is a climatological zone for US impacts. It could recurve even further out than Jeanne and come back.

Depends on how much westward progress TD4 observes and the North Atlantic 500mb setup.

The 500mb pattern for Jeanne was different. To get a complete west movement to the coast you will need a completely opposite weather pattern with 5h ridge above the storm instead of trough. None of the guidance is showing that kind of weather pattern.

Could happen eventually from the looks of the bam models showing ESE movement near the end. One of the Ensembles from 18z even showed a UTurn near 33N

[Riptide]

Let us not forget Jeanne (2004), this region is a climatological zone for US impacts. It could recurve even further out than Jeanne and come back.

Depends on how much westward progress TD4 observes and the North Atlantic 500mb setup.

The 500mb pattern for Jeanne was different. To get a complete west movement to the coast you will need a completely opposite weather pattern with 5h ridge above the storm instead of trough. None of the guidance is showing that kind of weather pattern.

The pattern is in the process of transitioning, it's only a matter of how much longitude the first weakness can bleed off from TD4. For example, It is unlikely for a TC to reach the conus at 35N 65W vs 30N 70W, even with the favorable 500mb setup.

[chaser1]

Kudos UK, for sticking to your guns - "trough be damned"

[Ntxw]

The pattern is in the process of transitioning, it's only a matter of how much longitude the first weakness can bleed off from TD4. For example, It is unlikely for a TC to reach the conus at 35N 65W vs 30N 70W, even with the favorable 500mb setup.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .sprd2.gif

It is, I am speaking for just the pattern not the storm, on what guidance is showing. As you posted you see a rise in the NAO which means weakening of ridging above in the far NW Atlantic, thus allowing more weakness/troughiness.

[Ntxw]

0z Ukmet is recurve

[bamajammer4eva]

00z UKMet