ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[tolakram]

0Z Euro initialized, not expecting any surprises now

[chaser1]

Thank you... I stand corrected. Was looking at a graphic a couple posts ago, but was 12Z.

[tolakram]

24h

[Ntxw]

0Z Euro initialized, not expecting any surprises now

http://imageshack.com/a/img746/9576/E4eZ5A.gif

I agree we are not likely to see much change from the Euro, possibly a slightly earlier capture given where the bulk of convection currently is. It will probably relocate further north. Kind of like Bertha.

[tolakram]

48h

[tolakram]

72h

[tolakram]

96h

[Blown Away]

48-96hr NW or NNW... Looks like recurve...

[tolakram]

120h

[tolakram]

144h

[Hammy]

Could be the first major hurricane in two years from what the Euro is showing, how accurate is it with intensity overall?

[USTropics]

Could be the first major hurricane in two years from what the Euro is showing, how accurate is it with intensity overall?

It performs poorly with intensity forecasts. Below is an excerpt from Jeff Master's blog post earlier this week along with a graphic:

The top-performing global dynamical models for hurricane track, the GFS and European (ECMWF) models, are typically not considered by NHC forecasters when making intensity forecasts. The GFS model has done a decent job at making intensity forecasts over the past three years, but the European model has made poor intensity forecasts. In 2013 and for the period 2011 - 2013, the HWRF model was the best-performing intensity model for forecasts of 48 hours or less. The LGEM statistical model was the best one at longer-term intensity forecasts of 3 - 5 days.

[bamajammer4eva]

06z models show that the only UPDATED model that shows a US impact is the BAMD

Edit to change image:New model site is cool!
http://www.hurricaneanalytics.com/

[bahamaswx]

Could be the first major hurricane in two years from what the Euro is showing, how accurate is it with intensity overall?

It performs poorly with intensity forecasts. Below is an excerpt from Jeff Master's blog post earlier this week along with a graphic:

The top-performing global dynamical models for hurricane track, the GFS and European (ECMWF) models, are typically not considered by NHC forecasters when making intensity forecasts. The GFS model has done a decent job at making intensity forecasts over the past three years, but the European model has made poor intensity forecasts. In 2013 and for the period 2011 - 2013, the HWRF model was the best-performing intensity model for forecasts of 48 hours or less. The LGEM statistical model was the best one at longer-term intensity forecasts of 3 - 5 days.

[img]http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/intensity-models.png[img]

Wow. I knew we were very bad at predicting intensity, but I didn't know that we basically cant even beat the DSHIFOR5 model.

[MWatkins]

06z models show that the only UPDATED model that shows a US impact is the BAMD

Edit to change image:New model site is cool!
http://www.hurricaneanalytics.com/

Thank you for sharing the graphics - they have been a couple of years under development and they are just now starting to run automatically.

Will be working on enhanced forecast tracks and various views of the ensemble members in the coming days.

Mike

[bamajammer4eva]

06z models show that the only UPDATED model that shows a US impact is the BAMD

Edit to change image:New model site is cool!
http://www.hurricaneanalytics.com/

[img]http://i.imgur.com/owxRQOi.jpg

Thank you for sharing the graphics - they have been a couple of years under development and they are just now starting to run automatically.

Will be working on enhanced forecast tracks and various views of the ensemble members in the coming days.

Mike

Yes saw after I posted the above that it was actually your site. Looks great!!!

[JtSmarts]

Interesting that most of the models have shifted east so much that the Euro is now on the western envelope per the 5AM discussion.

EDIT: Quote from Joe Bastardi

US models look to be in error mode in front 72 hours,as they feedback and stretch out 04L. ECMWF more nw before final turn ne look right

[Equilibrium]

[tolakram]

Euro 12 running

0


24h

[tolakram]

48h