EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

As soon as I say this,

EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

Cat 4!!!!!

[Ntxw]

As soon as I say this,

EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

Cat 4!!!!!

Not surprising at all.

[Equilibrium]

TXPZ29 KNES 240627
TCSENP

A. 13E (MARIE)

B. 24/0600Z

C. 16.0N

D. 109.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A PINHOLE LG EYE EMBEDDED
IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 6.0 WITH NO EYE
ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 5.5 WHILE THE MET IS 5.0 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

YES Cat4

[euro6208]

It's a WPAC typhoon with it's large size and unusual high numbers but in a wrong basin.

[supercane4867]

SHIPS forecast intensity nearing Cat.5 at 48 hours with 43% chance of 25kt increase during the next 24 hours which will make Marie to 140kt if verifies

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 119 125 130 134 125 113 97 79 64 48 37
V (KT) LAND 105 113 119 125 130 134 125 113 97 79 64 48 37
V (KT) LGE mod 105 112 115 116 116 113 107 96 82 70 59 50 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Ntxw]

It's a WPAC typhoon with it's large size and unusual high numbers but in a wrong basin.

Didn't you get the memo ? In 2014 this is the it basin with the WPAC

[Yellow Evan]

Eye still not as cleared out as I would like. Still, it is slowly getting there. Only reason why this is a Cat 4 is since they cloud tops of so cold, so that a cool eye does not matter much when classifying via Dvorak it as an eye pattern.

I'm expecting NHC to forecast Cat 5 soon.

[Yellow Evan]

SHIPS forecast intensity nearing Cat.5 at 48 hours with 43% chance of 25kt increase during the next 24 hours which will make Marie to 140kt if verifies

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 119 125 130 134 125 113 97 79 64 48 37
V (KT) LAND 105 113 119 125 130 134 125 113 97 79 64 48 37
V (KT) LGE mod 105 112 115 116 116 113 107 96 82 70 59 50 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

Also, they initialed at 105 knts for some reason.

[euro6208]

It's a WPAC typhoon with it's large size and unusual high numbers but in a wrong basin.

Didn't you get the memo ? In 2014 this is the it basin with the WPAC

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 15:50:43 N Lon : 109:41:58 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.0mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 5.2

Center Temp : -63.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 43.7 degrees

Still struggling to get the right center fix

[euro6208]

Mother Marie.

[Ntxw]

Eye still not as cleared out as I would like. Still, it is slowly getting there. Only reason why this is a Cat 4 is since they cloud tops of so cold, so that a cool eye does not matter much when classifying via Dvorak it as an eye pattern.

I'm expecting NHC to forecast Cat 5 soon.

Could this actually turn out beneficial to her push for cat 5? Since the eye isnt truly complete and is already very intense, reduce the chance of immediate ewrc cycle? Either way she keeps looking better.

[supercane4867]

[Equilibrium]

13E MARIE 140824 0600 16.0N 109.4W EPAC 115 953

[bahamaswx]

Eye really starting to clear out now.

[euro6208]

Looks weaker than 115 knots which is up there because of dvorak of 6.0 and eye not yet clear out...

Satellite likely will catchup with dvorak...

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.0mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -61.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Rapid intensification

[Kingarabian]

Eye is clearing out considerably fast.

[bahamaswx]

Doesn't look weaker than 115 to me!