EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[somethingfunny]

Holy mother of Marie

[supercane4867]

Eye temp quickly warms frame by frame, ADT Raw T# now up to 7.6!

[Kingarabian]

The large size of Marie is likely contributing to a slower pace of intensification than initially forecast. By no means does that mean this won't become an exceptionally strong hurricane, however.

It still has time to be a very strong cane unless some factor like dry air or unexpected shear interfers.

Some easterly shear is already evident.

This probably isn't going to be a Category 5 hurricane (not that it was ever explicitly forecast to be)

I know this is a late response and I'm saddened that I missed this going into RI. Had to leave to dinner.

I don't think many of the cat.5 Hurricanes were forecast to become that strong. They just do it. It's smarter for an agency to go conservative especially if they're far from land.

But what an episode. I think they'll go with 150mph.

[Kingarabian]

My goodness.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  24 AUG 2014    Time :   071500 UTC
      Lat :   15:54:05 N     Lon :  109:59:42 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.7 / 970.1mb/ 82.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.7     4.7     7.6

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

 Center Temp : -24.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -78.8C

 Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE 

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON   
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  175km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES13
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.0 degrees

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240841
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie continues to rapidly intensify. The eye of the hurricane has
become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold
cloud tops surround the center. The inner core convective pattern
is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the
south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a
category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of
T6.0 from SAB.

The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and
warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening
during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with
major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due
to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not
easily forecast. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a
couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture
and sea surface temperatures gradually lower. A more rapid
weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when
Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26
degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar
trend.

The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on
the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The track
forecast is fairly straight forward. A west-northwest to northwest
motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north
of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism. The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the multi-model consensus.

A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has
expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the
coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect
southwestern Mexico through tomorrow. These swells, which are
likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to
spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[wxmann_91]

It is now official: the EPAC has seen twice as many Cat 4's in the past three months as the Atlantic has seen in the past three years.

[supercane4867]

Impressive solid eyewall

[Kingarabian]

Unfortunately as some have pointed out, the ADT has the center initialized wrong. If it was initialized correctly I'm pretty sure the CI would be at 7.0.



That microwave image is impressive.

[Equilibrium]

Closer to perfect alignment may reach perfection.

13E MARIE 140824 0600 16.0N 109.4W EPAC 115 944


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Equilibrium]

Looks 140 knts now on this presentation imo.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave C]

also seems to be moving more westerly.

[mrbagyo]

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2014AUG24 110000 6.1 940.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 7.44 -78.02 EYE 16 IR N/A 16.04 110.62 COMBO GOES15 33.7
2014AUG24 103000 6.1 940.8 117.4 6.1 6.2 7.0 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -4.06 -77.88 EYE 15 IR N/A 16.02 110.43 COMBO GOES15 33.8
2014AUG24 100000 5.9 945.3 112.4 5.9 6.2 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -24.36 -77.76 EYE 13 IR N/A 15.99 110.34 COMBO GOES15 33.9


the eye continues to warm.
______________________________________



SSEC Real Earth

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amazing! Ugh, too bad I missed the impressive part; at least I can now catch up after a 12-hour power outage.

[Yellow Evan]

Triple post there

Now, Marie's eye has cleared out. Looks amazing.

[cycloneye]

Triple post there

Now, Marie's eye has cleared out. Looks amazing.

Now is one. Facinating to watch and she may still go up in intensity during the next 6-12 hours.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Triple post there

Now, Marie's eye has cleared out. Looks amazing.

Internet is slow, as the power had just returned.

I am totally amazed by this beast!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Due to favorable conditions, Marie has explosively intensified from a category 1 to a category 4 in a quick period of time. I would not be surprised that Marie will continue intensifying and become a category 5 hurricane, given that the forecast of NHC are usually conservative and may mean 135 kts is conservative!! This should reach 145 kts, based on the environment and its appearance and be the most powerful in the EPAC since Rick in 2009. OH MY MARIE!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 16:02:39 N Lon : 110:37:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 947.6mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 175km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees

****************************************************


Could Raw ADT's top the Dvorak Scale?